The Ethiopian government announced that an interim administration has been established in Tigray, which will serve for 6 months under the supervision of the federal government. The administration aims to re-establish public services, ensure the return of the displaced and create the necessary conditions for elections during this period.
While the government stated that the recent clashes resulted in the defeat of the rebel Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), no statement has been made from the organization yet.
Advance to the Eritrean border
According to the latest update of Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), the global organization that monitors conflicts, the Ethiopian army took control of the town of Rama, approximately 7 kilometers from the Mereb River on the Eritrean border.
Noting that federal forces and the Tigray Peace Force also entered the city of Aksum, ACLED stated that the Tigray Defense Forces affiliated with the rebel TPLF are in the mountainous rural parts of Adet and Chila districts near the city.
According to ACLED, federal forces and their allies took control of the city of Shire and the towns of Atsibi, Freweyni and Idaga Hamus on October 9, and the cities of Adigrat on October 10 and Adwa on October 11. After the towns of Fatsi and Zalambessa on the Eritrean border changed hands on October 12, Tigray forces retreated to the area around Debre Damo and towards Irob district.
The shipment of tanks and heavy weapons from Adigrat to Fatsi and Zalambessa started on the night of October 12 and continued on October 13. In the assessment of the US-based research organization Critical Threats Project (CTP), it was reported that federal forces advanced north from Adigrat and reached Zalambessa.
ACLED announced that Eritrean soldiers who entered the Tigray region withdrew to their country via Zalambessa on the border on October 12. The organization stated that Eritrean and Tigray forces also withdrew from the Sheraro area and that no party had control over the town.
Tigray Peace Force Spokesperson Solomon Hailemariam claimed on October 15 that Eritrean soldiers suffered heavy losses, but Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel denied this. The extent of losses could not be independently verified.
Developments in Tigray, Amhara and Afar
Tigray Defense Forces affiliated with TPLF announced that they launched a counter-attack in the Tembien region in the central parts of Tigray. According to local media reports, the organization claimed that it recaptured Abiy Addi, Shewate Higum and Yechila on October 14.
The anti-government armed group Amhara Fano National Movement claimed that it had captured 10 settlements in North Sheva, Ethiopia's Amhara region, including the towns of Mehal Meda and Zemero. Residents of the region stated that there were civilian casualties in the clashes. Claims by rebel Tigray forces and Fano that they had captured some areas could not be independently verified.
In the Afar region in the northeast of the country, it was stated that the Ethiopian army regained control on October 1 in the towns of Abala and Erebti, which were captured by the rebel Tigray forces and the Afar armed group Ugugumo in September. While Ugugumo's latest statement stated that coordination would continue through the anti-government alliance, no information was given about the capture of a new settlement.
Different explanations about the seven-party alliance
It has not been confirmed that all members of the seven-party alliance, which was announced to have been established in September to overthrow the Abiy Ahmed government, participated in the joint operation. Current information on the direct contribution of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) to recent operations in the north remains limited.
CTP quoted the spokesperson of the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) as saying that "they support the alliance's political goals, but do not participate in its military goals." In its assessment based on the news of Deutsche Welle Amharic service, the organization stated that the spokespersons of the Benishangul People's Liberation Movement and the Gumuz People's Democratic Movement rejected membership in the alliance.
The conflicts between the Ethiopian government and TPLF in the 2020-2022 period were stopped with the Pretoria Agreement. While the conflicts that started again in September continue, Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of sending troops to its territory and supporting armed groups, while Eritrea argues that its sovereignty is threatened.
