Europe's Jet Fuel Crisis Averted for Now, But Fall Concerns Remain

BRUSSELS — Europe is now considered unlikely to face a jet fuel supply crisis and major flight disruptions in the coming weeks — a big change from the dire warnings of just a few weeks ago.

The core reason for the shift is a hike in prices, which encouraged refiners and traders to redirect fuel cargoes toward Europe, helping offset lost Gulf supplies faster than policymakers initially expected.

However, there are still concerns about fuel supplies by the early fall if the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran continues and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz don't return to normal levels.

“Our fuel suppliers as recently as this week have confirmed they expect no supply disruption right out to the middle of July, and the situation continues to improve,” Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary said on Monday.

The airline boss said he is now confident that rising fuel imports from West Africa, the U.S. and Norway are making up for reduced volumes from the Middle East, caused by the blockade of most tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The more optimistic mood is a stark contrast to the warning issued a month ago by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, who said European countries could face jet fuel shortages by the end of May.

But the agency's latest oil market report, issued earlier this month, now notes a surge in jet fuel production in the U.S. and West Africa.

"Alternative suppliers have moved to fill the gap," the IEA said. "The United States flipped from a net importer in April 2025 to net exporter in early 2026, as strong refinery runs pushed jet fuel output to multi-year highs."

European refiners like Spain's Repsol have also ramped up production, with the company saying it planned to increase jet fuel output by 15 percent to 20 percent, and "will do everything in its power to help safeguard key sectors such as tourism, an activity of great importance to the Spanish economy."

However, the IEA did say that higher jet fuel exports and production have not completely replaced prewar flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Absent a near-term resolution to the Hormuz situation, rebalancing will take time,” the agency warned.

In the early weeks of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran and Tehran's retaliation by blocking most shipping through the strait, jet fuel prices jumped to over $200 a barrel — more than double the prewar price. However, in recent weeks prices have drifted lower to about $162 a barrel.

The initial jet fuel price jump and supply worries prompted some airlines like Scandinavia's SAS and Lufthansa to cut thousands of short-haul flights that were no longer profitable.

But this week, Ryanair said it is adding new flights.

Air traffic manager Eurocontrol recently revised its summer forecast, projecting traffic growth of around 2 percent to 2.5 percent compared with last summer, although that's down slightly from the 3.3 percent growth estimated earlier this year.

The European Commission is also cautiously optimistic.

The Commission’s energy department said “there are no shortages of fuel in the EU at present.”

However, it did warn that “regional supply constraints could arise in the next weeks if the blockage of oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz does not get resolved — with jet fuel being the primary concern.”

The EU executive added that emergency fuel stocks managed by member countries “can be released if needed.” Any such step would have to be linked to fuel-saving measures to ensure it lasts as long as possible, it said.

The U.K. was vulnerable to shortages because it imported half its jet fuel from the Gulf before the war. A U.K. government official now said the summer outlook appears “OK,” adding of any supply crunch: “If it’s going to bite, it might bite in September.”

The country does have plans to prioritize fuel use for emergencies instead of normal tourist travel if needed, but the official said: "We’re a very long way from that point, and I don’t think we will see that eventuality.”

The change in tone is echoed by fresh assessments from energy analysts on the outlook for the next weeks.

“Summer should be fine,” Kpler oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi told POLITICO.