European Gas Prices Surge 11% in H1 2026 Amid Middle East Conflict and Storage Needs
Quick Look
- Average European gas prices rose 11% to $515/1000 cubic meters in H1 2026, driven by the Middle East conflict and early storage filling for winter.
- Prices also exceeded H2 2025 levels by 35%.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Average European gas prices increased significantly in the first half of 2026, driven by geopolitical events and the necessity for early winter storage preparations.
MOSCOW, July 1. /TASS/. The average price of gas in Europe rose by 11% in the first half of 2026 year-on-year to $515 per 1,000 cubic meters driven by the Middle East conflict and the need to begin filling storage facilities early for the winter season, according to data on futures from the London-based ICE exchange and calculations by TASS.
This figure also exceeded the levels seen in the second half of last year by 35%. Moreover, the price of gas in Europe in June was 22% higher than the average quotes for June 2025, even though it fell by 6% compared to May.
While natural gas futures traded at around $554 per 1,000 cubic meters on May 29, trading closed at around $510 on June 30, 8% lower than at the end of the previous month.
The price of gas at European hubs was $481 per 1,000 cubic meters in the first quarter of the current year, and $550 in the second quarter.
The rise in gas prices during the first half of the year was primarily driven by the Middle East conflict and the global gas market crisis resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global supplies pass. All of this led to higher gas prices in Europe and Asia; as these regions compete for available market volumes, they drive prices upward.
Furthermore, as TASS previously reported, Europe concluded its heating season in early April. Lasting 173 days, it was the second-longest season on record since 2011. In terms of duration, it was surpassed only by the 2020-2021 heating season, which lasted 190 days. Net withdrawals during the past heating season exceeded 61 bln cubic meters (bcm), 6.5 bcm more than the volume injected last summer.
The European Commission requests EU members to make sure their UGS facilities are 90% full in the period from October 1 to December 1 of each year. Moreover, 10% flexibility is allowed in the event of difficult UGS filling conditions. Thus, net injection into European storage facilities by the start of the 2026-2027 autumn-winter period must reach at least 68 bcm to meet the filling standard.
Currently, European underground gas storage facilities are 48.62% full compared to 58.2% in the previous year, containing around 53.2 bcm of gas.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
European gas storage facilities will aim to reach 90% capacity by December 1, 2026.
Very likely · Within months
Open Questions
- Will the Middle East conflict de-escalate?
- How will storage filling progress in coming months?
- What is the impact on inflation?
