
Democratic strategists Tom Bonier and Chuck Rosenberg argue in a TIME-obtained memo that a demographic realignment drove Democrats' midterm blowout, with Hispanic turnout exceeding 2022 levels and voters of color powering the shift, with major implications for the 2028 presidential field and the DNC's decision to elevate South Carolina's primary.
AI-generated summary
The article discusses Democratic Party strategists analyzing midterm election results where every major demographic group shifted left, with voters of color driving the shift. The DNC previously decided to elevate South Carolina's presidential primary to lead-off position for 2028.
That’s a key takeaway strategists in both parties are clocking as they pore through the results. In a memo obtained exclusively by TIME on Wednesday and soon to circulate among the Democratic National Committee’s bigwigs, two of the Democratic Party’s veteran strategists argue that the blowout would not have been possible without that crucial realignment, one that has enormous consequences for 2028’s presidential field.
To be clear, every major demographic group shifted left in these midterms, offering a stunning rebuke of President Donald Trump and his brand of the Republican Party. “The final popular vote margin for the House will take weeks to determine, but at this point Democrats are on track to have the largest popular vote margin in a midterm election since 1974,” Bonier and Rosenberg write. “Voters of color were the driving force behind the blue tsunami.”
The party’s base “came home,” in the words of one Democratic strategist on Wednesday. “Back to normal” was the verdict of another.
Hispanic voters proved particularly enthusiastic to cast their ballots. A Bonier-Rosenberg analysis of early-vote data showed Hispanic turnout easily surpassing 2022’s midterms, and potentially topping even the 2024 presidential numbers, before Election Day.
This shift will have big implications for the candidates mulling presidential runs, but also for the party’s decision last year to rearrange its primary calendar. The DNC’s choice to elevate South Carolina’s presidential primary to lead-off position for 2028 drew some second-guessing from within the party. That decision now looks even more prescient, as it further empowers the true spine of the Democratic Party. A full 26% of South Carolina voters on Tuesday were voters of color, according to exit polls. That’s a far cry from Iowa and New Hampshire—the traditional starting pistols in the presidential race, where less than 10% were voters of color, per exit polls.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The 2028 Democratic presidential field will be shaped by the demographic realignment that drove the midterm results
Likely · Within months
South Carolina's lead-off primary position for 2028 will be seen as increasingly prescient
Likely · Within months
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