Exit Polls Predict Clear BJP Majority in Assam, Congress Trails Significantly

Exit polls released on Wednesday evening for the high-stakes Assam battle indicate a clear majority for the incumbent Himanta Biswa Sarma-led government, with most pollsters favouring the BJP to secure a third consecutive term in the tea-producing state. The numbers left Congress on the margins, pushing the party further into vulnerability and offering little advantage to the Gaurav Gogoi-led Congress campaign in Assam.

Exit poll projections released by multiple agencies point towards a comfortable majority for the BJP-led government in Assam, indicating a possible third consecutive term for the incumbent Himanta Biswa Sarma-led party. According to P-MARQ, the BJP is projected to win 82–94 seats, while the Congress may secure 30–40 seats, and others could get 1–5 seats. Matrize's estimates show the BJP ahead with 85–95 seats, followed by Congress at 25–32 seats, and others in the range of 6–12 seats. Axis My India also projects a strong BJP performance with 88–100 seats, while Congress is seen getting 24–36 seats. JVC's exit poll gives the BJP 88–101 seats, Congress 23–33 seats, and others 2–5 seats.

Across all major pollsters, the trend broadly suggests a clear advantage for the BJP, while the Congress-led opposition appears significantly behind in the race. The poll of polls for Assam 2026 indicates a clear majority for the BJP with an average projection of around 90 seats, while Congress is expected to win around 30 seats and others about 4-5 seats, suggesting a comfortable lead for the ruling party.

In a high-stakes contest in Assam, the Bharatiya Janata Party, led by CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, aiming for a third consecutive term. The Congress, meanwhile, made a strong push to regain its footing in the state under Gaurav Gogoi, son of former chief minister Tarun Gogoi and deputy LoP in Lok Sabha. The campaign has largely turned into a direct face-off between the two prominent leaders, Himanta vs Gaurav, marked by sharp exchanges.

Assam voted across all 126 seats on April 9, recording a turnout of over 85%, one of the highest in recent years. Notably, the surge in voting was seen not just in rural areas but also across urban centres, pointing to broad-based and enthusiastic voter participation across the state.