Expert: Gaza has shrunk in a year of ceasefire

On October 10, 2025, the truce between terrorist-branded Hamas and Israel began after just over two years of war that followed the terrorist attack on October 7. The agreement led to all the hostages being handed over to Israel. Over 200 Palestinians sentenced to life were also released from Israeli prison.

Otherwise, the peace agreement has not led to any major successes, according to Middle East expert Alexander Atarodi. Attacks have continued, albeit at a reduced intensity, and around 1,400 people have been killed in Gaza.

- I don't think we have gotten anywhere in terms of the obligations of the agreement, he says.

The ceasefire is supposed to consist of two phases. Once the first is achieved, work on the second would begin. According to Atarodi, an enormous amount of work is needed before one can start discussing more advanced parts of a sustainable peace in the area. Two major critical questions are how the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israel will ever be able to take place. The militia group and Israel do not agree on how it should happen or in what order, says Atarodi.

He is critical of the peace council, which according to the agreement is headed by US President Donald Trump.

- We don't know what this board actually does. There are a number of countries in it. But there is very little evidence that what is being done leads to actual progress, he says.

The United States, which was a mediator in the conflict, has during the past year been preoccupied with the war in Iran. The worsening situation in several parts of the Middle East - including Lebanon and Yemen - means that peace issues in Gaza are not the White House's top priority, according to Atadori.

- If there is a country on earth that has the opportunity to influence the conflict, it is the United States, he says.

The Peace Council is tasked with establishing a framework so that the enclave can be rebuilt.

- There is no indication that the peace board has any sensible plan for how Hamas is to be disarmed, Israel is to withdraw or how the reconstruction of Gaza is to take place, says Atarodi.

Instead of sticking to agreed borders, Israel's military (IDF) has expanded the area it controls in Gaza. When the ceasefire took effect, the IDF controlled 53 percent of the enclave.

- Right now, upwards of 60 percent of Gaza is occupied by Israel. There is less and less room for the 2.1 million people who live there to stay, says Atarodi.

Before the parties agreed on a ceasefire, the humanitarian situation in Gaza received a lot of attention. Among other things, there were warnings of starvation due to not enough food shipments coming into the enclave. More trucks are entering Gaza with food since the ceasefire came into effect. However, according to the UN organization OCHA, the health situation remains difficult.

Alexander Atarodi says that the humanitarian situation has hardly improved in the past year.

- It is still devastating living conditions, he says.

Read more: The school opens in tents - after three years without normal teaching