Dag Blanck, senior professor in North American studies at Uppsala University
Dag Blanck says that all signs indicate - without knowing with one hundred percent certainty - that the Democrats will win the House of Representatives.
- As far as the Senate is concerned, it is somewhat more uncertain. I think the Democrats will move forward. They need to win four seats in the Senate to get a majority there. I'm not entirely sure they will get it. But I think they will win at least two seats in the Senate. Maybe more.
It would be a very big surprise if the predictions come to light and the Republicans hold their ground, according to Blanck.
- Another surprise, but perhaps a little less, would be if there is a really big blue wave with a bigger victory for the Democrats.
One state that is very even is Texas.
- James Talarico (Democrat candidate in the Senate election, editor's note) is ahead in the opinion polls by a number of percentage points. There are high hopes from the Democrats' side there.
- Somewhat unexpectedly, a state like Kansas has moved forward recently. I'm keeping an eye on that.
That things are going so well for the Democrats in, for example, Texas and Kansas can partly be explained by the expression "candidate quality", according to Blanck.
- How good are the candidates who have been put forward? There is skepticism towards some of the candidates, such as Ken Paxton in Texas who is very controversial and the incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas who has a lot of criticism.
- We also have the incumbent Republican senator Susan Collins in Maine. Will she make it again? I wouldn't be surprised if she does.
Iowa is another state where the Democrats have done surprisingly well, he continues.
- But there I don't think it will be enough all the way. You have a pretty good Republican candidate in Iowa.
If there is a power shift in Congress, it will limit Trump's ability to govern for the next two years.
- The interesting question then is whether they will accept the outcome of the election or whether they will try to question the election result, as Trump did with the 2020 presidential election.
Emma Ricknell, political scientist at Linnaeus University
Emma Ricknell says she doesn't want to be absolutely sure about anything, because there is uncertainty in the opinion polls.
- But it must still be said that very much points to a democratic victory when it comes to the House of Representatives.
When it comes to the senate seats, however, it is about small margins, she continues.
- There are many Democrats challenging in traditionally Republican states. That we talk about it at all is an important aspect in this particular mid-term election. But it could also be that the Republicans really succeed in mobilizing towards the end, during election day.
There are essentially three scenarios, she believes.
- The first is that there will be "a blue tsunami" and that the Democrats will take over both the Senate and the House of Representatives. The second scenario is that the Democrats take the House of Representatives but not the Senate. It will be a kind of intermediate position and a more unclear result.
- The third scenario is that nothing actually happens, but that the Republicans retain power in both chambers. But that is quite unlikely.
Emma Ricknell says she has changed her mind a bit in recent days regarding the Senate, depending on the numbers that have come in.
- There are several forecasts, including in the New York Times, which show that the Democrats could take almost everything. I'm a little more conservative in my estimation, but even I see it tilting to the Democrats.
At the same time, she highlights that Donald Trump has been out campaigning, for example in Texas.
- But it may not have had the effect he would have liked. It would be a very remarkable result if the Democrats take over a seat there.
She highlights Maine as a very exciting state.
- I don't know if Susan Collins, the Republican senator who has been sitting since 1997, has the same opportunity to mobilize Republican voters as before. There I think it can be a challenge for her, even if she has succeeded in the past.
Erik Åsard, professor emeritus in North American studies at Uppsala University
All opinion polls point in one and the same direction, and that's really the only thing we can go on, says Erik Åsard.
- They indicate that the Democrats will win back the House of Representatives quite comfortably. There, the forecasts vary between the Democrats gaining an advantage of five to seven mandates and that they can at most gain upwards of 40 mandates more than the Republicans.
The Senate, on the other hand, is more difficult to predict, as it is a much slower election, emphasizes the US expert.
- Senate elections are decided state by state, and the population is often mixed. For example, there is a big difference between cities and rural areas when it comes to voting behavior in different states.
The Democrats need four more seats to reach a majority in the Senate.
- They have a good chance, but I dare not guess that it will be like that. If there is a real so-called "blue wave", it is still likely that they will take back both chambers.
As for the states, it is impossible to predict because it is so even in the decisive states, according to Åsard.
- But I think a couple of choices stand out. The first is Michigan, where write-in candidate Abdul El-Sayed is running to win a Senate seat. It is an outgoing Democrat who holds the seat, so Democrats may need to win the Michigan election to be sure of a majority in the Senate. If El-Sayed wins, it would be a great success for the left within the Democrats, who would then get wind in their sails ahead of the primary elections in 2028. He would then become the first Muslim to be elected to the Senate.
The other state that Åsard wants to highlight is Texas.
- There, the Democrats have not won a senate election since 1988. In several previous senate elections, the Democrats' candidates have fared well in the opinion polls, but always lost in the end and lost. The question is whether it can be different this time.
- If the Democrats win in a state like Texas, which has been very Republican for a long time, it is a sign of a strong Democratic wave of success. I would single out the two states as particularly important to keep an eye on.
Read more:
Five things to keep an eye on in the 2026 midterm elections
