
伊朗對經過荷姆茲海峽的船隻攻擊激增,航運業人士指出貨物運輸量可能正在放緩,雖未見主要產油國裝載量變化,但船舶改航或掉頭現象增加,船對船轉運等待時間延長,顯示區域緊張局勢升級可能威脅波斯灣石油出口近期復甦。
AI-generated summary
荷姆茲海峽是全球關鍵石油運輸通道,日均約有1200萬桶原油經過此地。伊朗過去曾多次以海軍或準軍事力量襲擊經過該海峽的船隻,尤其在區域緊張時期升級攻擊行動。
伊朗升級對荷姆茲海峽船隻攻擊,可能威脅波斯灣石油出口近期的復甦。(路透資料照)
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕隨著伊朗隊行經荷姆茲海峽的船隻攻擊激增,可能威脅波斯灣石油出口近期的復甦。
《彭博》報導,航運業人士表示,有跡象表明,本月初,荷姆茲海峽的貨物運輸量曾接近站前水位,但目前可能正在放緩。不過,目前還沒有跡象表明幾個主要產油國的裝載量發生了變化,一名船東表示,行經荷姆茲海峽的運輸似乎並未受到限制。
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中東地區的敵對行動不斷升級,沙烏地阿拉伯正遭受葉門叛軍青年運動的猛烈攻擊,週一局勢惡化推動布蘭特原油價格突破每桶106美元,儘管週二價格略有回落。
英國海事貿易行動辦公室(UK Maritime Trade Operations)表示,本(10)月11日,4艘油輪再通過咽喉要道時,在多起獨立事件中遭到不明飛行物襲擊。這大概是該機構前一週觀察到的日均攻擊次數的兩倍。
船舶營運商的警覺情緒日益高漲,《彭博》彙整的油輪追蹤數據顯示,十幾艘超級油輪和數艘蘇伊士極限型(Suezmax)油輪在接近荷姆茲海峽入口附近、阿聯重要的航運樞紐富查伊拉(Fujairah)時,不是掉頭就是改變航向。
在該地區經營的一些船舶經紀人和一些船東描述了交通放緩的其他跡象,特別是船對船轉運的等待時間更長。船對船轉運是油輪承擔穿越荷姆茲海峽的風險,然後將貨物轉移到其他船隻上,最終交付給其他買家,在推動地區出口方面發揮了關鍵的作用。
上週,在新的一輪衝突升級前,殼牌執行長薩萬 (Wael Sawan)預估,中東地區的石油流量已恢復到戰前水準的80%左右。維多集團執行長哈迪(Russell Hardy)6日表示,每天有1200萬桶原油和200萬桶燃料離開荷姆茲海峽。
在伊朗戰爭的大部份時間裡,經過該水道的船隻都是攻擊目標,但強度不一。過去大規模的襲擊曾導致出貨量短暫下降,但隨後幾天的出口往往會彌補這些下降。
7月,伊朗發動的一系列攻擊導致荷姆茲海峽的貿易短暫停滯,中斷通往全球市場的關鍵貿易,並引發價格上漲。
沙烏地阿拉伯航運公司負責人週二(13日)在世界石油理事會能源大會(WPC Energy Congress)會上表示,現在大家都明白運輸、船舶以及整個供應鏈的重要性,將不顧一切展現韌性。儘管青年運動對利雅德機場發動了致命攻擊,但產業活動仍如期舉行,不過許多國際石油公司的高層取消了出席。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
若伊朗攻擊持續,布蘭特原油價格可能在未來兩週內重新上漲至每桶100美元以上
Likely · Within weeks
國際海軍可能增加在荷姆茲海峽的巡邏頻率以保護商船航行
Possible · Within weeks

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