At this sensitive moment for Taiwan’s election, a U.S. think tank report warns: China will conduct large-scale military exercises without making an announcement
The report stated that China has mobilized troops from three coastal theaters in the east, north, and south, exceeding last year’s circum-Taiwan military exercises in an attempt to integrate surface combat forces into a single far-sea combat mission.
Quick Look
- Washington think tanks AEI and ISW released the "China and Taiwan Situation Update" report, warning that the Chinese Communist Party may be conducting unannounced large-scale military exercises to simulate encirclement and isolation of Taiwan.
- The report pointed out that China has mobilized troops from three coastal theaters in the east, north, and south, exceeding last year's circum-Taiwan military exercise in an attempt to integrate surface combat forces into a single far-sea combat mission.
- National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu confirmed that China has deployed more than 100 ships in the Western Pacific.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
In twenty days, Taiwan will hold its nine-in-one election voting. At this sensitive moment, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for War Studies (ISW), a Washington think tank, released the latest "China and Taiwan Situation Update" joint report, warning that the Chinese Communist Party may be conducting an unannounced large-scale military exercise to simulate encirclement and isolation of Taiwan.
In twenty days, voting will take place in Taiwan’s nine-in-one election. At this sensitive moment, the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Institute for War Studies (ISW), a Washington think tank, released the latest "China and Taiwan Situation Update" joint report, warning that the Chinese Communist Party may be conducting an unannounced large-scale military exercise to simulate encirclement and isolation of Taiwan. The scale of this exercise exceeds that of the People's Liberation Army's Taiwan-wide military exercise last year. It also mobilized troops from the eastern, northern and southern theaters in an attempt to integrate the surface combat forces of the three coastal theaters into a single high-sea combat mission.
The scale of mobilization of troops in 3 theater areas exceeds that of last year
Secretary-General of the National Security Council Joseph Wu recently confirmed on the social platform X that China has deployed more than 100 ships in the Western Pacific. National security officials said that the United States has recently conducted exercises with other allied countries in the region. China's move is aimed at harassment of the first island chain, including showing resistance to the United States, and not just Taiwan. China also cooperates with Russia's provocations against Europe.
The report pointed out that China did not announce a large-scale military exercise this time, which is different from past practice. Its purpose may be to create the illusion that the People's Liberation Army can isolate Taiwan. China typically announces and publicizes the names of large-scale military exercises targeting Taiwan.
Different practices create the illusion that Taiwan can be isolated
The report points out that China is trying to normalize its military presence around Taiwan and in the Western Pacific. China may also be intent on demonstrating its ability to transition quickly from peacetime to combat operations, thereby shortening the time it would take for adversaries to detect PLA preparations for a blockade or invasion of Taiwan.
The report believes that China's move is aimed at weakening Taiwanese people's confidence in its own defense capabilities and the United States' willingness to assist. The PLA's recent actions around Taiwan and throughout the Western Pacific are likely to have a dual purpose: on the one hand, to prepare for true isolation operations, and on the other hand, to create information effects that undermine Taiwan's confidence in its own defense capabilities and the ability of its allies and partners to support Taiwan.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
China may take further military action to isolate Taiwan during or after the 9-in-1 elections
Possible · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Is the CCP indeed conducting unannounced large-scale military exercises?
- What are the specific timetable and objectives of this military operation?
- How will the United States and its allies respond to China's military mobilization?
- Will the 9-in-1 election results be affected by this military dynamic?
