Falcons vs. Saints Preview: SportsLine Model Favors Over in Monday Night Football Matchup

The Atlanta Falcons will look to make it two wins in a row when they face the New Orleans Saints in a key NFC South matchup on 'Monday Night Football.' Atlanta is coming off a 35-14 thrashing of Green Bay in Week 3, while New Orleans dropped a 35-27 decision to Las Vegas. The Falcons (1-2), who last won the NFC South in 2016, are 1-1 on the road this season. The Saints (1-2), who last won the division in 2020, are 0-1 on their home field. The Saints will be without running back Travis Etienne (hamstring). Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10:

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. The latest Falcons vs. Saints odds have New Orleans as the 1.5-point favorite, while the over/under is 47.5. New Orleans is 2-1 against the spread this season, while Atlanta is 1-2. Before making any Falcons vs. Saints picks or 'Monday Night Football' predictions, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Falcons vs. Saints. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Saints vs. Falcons:

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Top Falcons vs. Saints predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Falcons vs. Saints, the model is going Over 47.5 points at betting apps. The Over has hit in two of the last three Saints games, and in the last Falcons game. The Over is also 1-0 in New Orleans games when the line is over 47.

Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. returned in the win over Green Bay in Week 3 and completed 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and one touchdown with one pick. The Falcons' rushing attack has been dominant and is led by Bijan Robinson. In three games, he has carried 66 times for 349 yards and two touchdowns. He carried 29 times for 194 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. Quarterback Tyler Shough powers the Saints. He has completed 68.9% of his passes for 917 yards and eight touchdowns with three interceptions.

The model projects 51 combined points as the Over has all the value. See which team to back at SportsLine.

How to make 'Monday Night Football' picks

In addition to going Over, the model also says one side of the spread is hitting in over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.