Fantasy football is all about the matchups, but sometimes even the most favorable matchup isn't enough to make a player worth starting. Four weeks into the season, we've seen plenty of unexpected performances and disappointing stars and injuries that have completely changed the outlook for certain players. And with bye weeks complicating lineup decisions, it is becoming increasingly important to know when to trust a big name and when to take a chance on someone else.
Take Jalen Hurts and Justin Herbert, for example. Both are difficult to trust in Week 5 because of offensive line concerns and challenging matchups. Meanwhile, players such as Ollie Gordon, Woody Marks, and T.J. Hockenson are making strong arguments for starting positions, despite entering the season with significantly less fantasy appeal.
That's why you can't just go off of Draft position or what happened last Sunday. Who gets into your lineup depends on defensive schemes, injuries, offensive tendencies and individual matchups.
We'll go through each Week 5 game and point out the players with the toughest start/sit decisions. We'll highlight the less obvious calls, point out the opportunities worth exploiting and help you feel more confident about the lineup you're putting out on the field.
Dave Richard's Week 5 rankings: Top 150 | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST
The Cowboys pass rush is below average in terms of both blitz rate and pressure rate, and they have just four sacks through four games (only the Giants have fewer). That should keep the Bucs' quick pass game going. Further downfield throws? That's a problem since Daniels completed just 3 of 9 throws of six-plus air yards for 46 yards last week against the Packers, who entered Week 4 with an even lower pass rush pressure rate than the Cowboys and still amassed three sacks versus the Bucs. And while we're getting to that point of the season where running backs have an edge in Thursday night games, Dallas' run defense has let up only three explosive runs on 23 RB rush attempts per game and ranks sixth-best in defensive total rush EPA. Dallas' offense should do what it does because the only pass defense the Bucs have slowed in 2026 has been the Vikings with Kyler Murray and without Justin Jefferson. That means we should see another long game for a Bucs offense that scored 14 points last week and 19 or fewer points in each of its past three.
MUST-START: CeeDee Lamb, Javonte Williams
START: Dak Prescott, George Pickens, Bucky Irving (low-end No. 2 RB), Cowboys DST
SIT: Jalon Daniels, Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin, Jake Ferguson, Kenneth Gainwell, Ryan Flournoy, Ted Hurst, Cade Otton, Buccaneers DST
It's bad enough that the Eagles will come into Week 5 with Lane Johnson retired, Landon Dickerson on IR, and Cam Jurgens dealing with a concussion traded to Baltimore on top of DeVonta Smith and Saquon Barkley being big-time question marks. It's made worse by Philadelphia's new offense not yet taking hold. The Jaguars' pass rush isn't dominant but they do have five sacks over their past two games and have begun finding the quarterback without having to blitz much. The Jaguars run defense, however, is beginning to look dominant against RBs: No. 1 through four weeks in yards per carry allowed (2.9), defensive rush success (75.4%), five-yard rush rate allowed (19.7%), yards after contact per rush allowed (1.79) and missed tackles on RB runs (five). It's really hard to back anyone in the Philly's offense, including Jalen Hurts, who would theoretically have to do a lot of his damage rushing against this run defense and/or find ways to make big stats through the air. Maybe he could -- the Jaguars have yet to face a rushing QB threat this season.
START: Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington, Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars DST
FLEX: Will Shipley (low-end PPR flex), Dontayvion Wicks (low-end flex)
SIT: Jalen Hurts, Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr., Darius Cooper, Makai Lemon, Chris Rodriguez, Brenton Strange, Zach Ertz, Eagles DST
Is the Bears run game more like the Falcons, or more like the Vikings, Jets and Buccaneers? Those last three run offenses were held by Green Bay to 3.7 yards per rush or worse, with only two runs of 10-plus yards combined. But the Falcons came to Lambeau Field on a Thursday and smashed them, which seems to be what the Falcons are going to do a lot of this season. Considering how well the Bears ran the ball last week against the Jets, their overall commitment to the run game, and their backup quarterback situation, I'm reasonably sure we'll see a run-leaning approach from Ben Johnson's crew. That's made easier by the absence of Packers linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who was a solid tackler for them. Chicago leads the NFL in RB carries and is top five in yards per rush (4.9), RB rushing touchdowns (six), yards after contact per rush (3.30), and just outside the top five in yards before contact per rush (1.59) and explosive rush rate (8.3%). D'Andre Swift was benched for fumbling last week, but he did the same thing in two games last year and had at least 16 touches in the very next game after his lost fumble, so I'd still expect him to lead the way for Chicago.
So if the Bears run game is going to be good, does that mean fewer pass attempts for the Bears pass game? That would have been the case last week had the Jets offense actually converted a third down or had an offensive drive last longer than seven plays. I wouldn't lean too heavily on last week's inflated Bears stats, considering they ran 89 offensive plays, way more than normal. But I would be interested in Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III, given the Packers' zone-leaning, low-pressure, pass-rush defense. Burden's efficiency has popped since Caleb Williams hurt his leg, specifically leading top Bears pass-catchers against zone coverage the past two weeks with a 31.8% target per route rate and 2.77 yards per route run. But Odunze saw a big boost last week against the Jets' zone-heavy defense, and I know Odunze isn't quite at the level of Drake London, Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson, but the Packers got wrecked by those outside receivers. When Tyson Bagent has time to throw, he has demonstrated that he'll take some chances looking for Odunze. That's enough to lean toward Odunze winning his matchups versus Burden getting enough numbers getting schemed up on shorter throws, but both are at worst quality flex options.
START: Christian Watson, Matthew Golden, D'Andre Swift, Tucker Kraft, Rome Odunze (low-end No. 2 PPR WR), Bears DST
FLEX: Luther Burden III
SIT: Jordan Love (high-end No. 2 QB), Tyson Bagent, Kalif Raymond (bye-week PPR WR), Kyle Monangai (bye-week RB), Colston Loveland (bye-week TE), MarShawn Lloyd, Kaleb Johnson, Jonnu Smith, Packers DST
Drake Maye seemingly turned a corner last week, throwing on time to Romeo Doubs a number of times and keeping other plays alive with his legs, whether he was pressured or not. The Raiders pass rush is unquestionably the best part of their defense and figures to bring heat often, just as they've done every week this season without having to blitz much. But in competitive games over the past two weeks, they've dabbled a little more in man-to-man coverage, especially on third down. That man coverage hasn't sat well with Doubs this year (23 routes, four targets, one 2-yard catch); last week, he crushed the Bills' zone coverage just as he did the Steelers' zone in Week 2. It'll take work from him on early downs against the Raiders in order to have a good game.
MUST-START: Brock Bowers, Ashton Jeanty
START: Drake Maye (borderline start), Rhamondre Stevenson, Raiders DST
FLEX: Romeo Doubs (low-end flex)
SIT: Kirk Cousins (borderline start), Tre Tucker, Michael Mayer, TreVeyon Henderson, Hunter Henry, Demario Douglas, Efton Chism III, Cody White, Mike Washington Jr., Patriots DST
T.J. Hockenson did his best Trey McBride impersonation last week, getting almost all of his targets against zone coverage, including several when Kyler Murray was under pressure and wanted to get the ball out quickly. That was especially a byproduct of the Vikings offensive line struggling in pass protection -- they lost left guard Donovan Jackson early on, left tackle Christian Darrisaw left before the end of the third quarter and his replacement allowed a bunch of pressures. There is no question that the Saints will try to come after Murray, just as the Dolphins did, especially if Darrisaw is out. Will they be successful? That's debatable -- New Orleans' pass rush hasn't been very good, especially outside of Chase Young, but against a depleted Vikings offensive line, they should at least be competitive. Kyler Murray's track record against Brandon Staley-coached defenses is really good (22-plus Fantasy points in 3 of 4 meetings), but Murray himself hasn't been great this year and figures to have some pressure problems. The end result should mean forced targets to Hockenson again -- and not as many to Jordan Addison for the second week in a row.
MUST-START: Chris Olave
START: Tyler Shough (low-end start), Aaron Jones, Juwan Johnson, Jordan Addison (low-end No. 2 WR), T.J. Hockenson, Vikings DST (borderline start)
FLEX: Devaughn Vele, Alvin Kamara
SIT: Kyler Murray, Kendre Miller, Saints DST
The Browns have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this year but have yielded at least 4.3 yards per carry in every game. This goes hand in hand with them comfortably moving into a single-high safety, man-to-man defense through their past three games -- the kind of defense that should be very focused on the run. It's worth noting that Geno Smith has targeted his running backs at a 23.8% rate on their routes against single-high, albeit with modest results. Braelon Allen has taken every touch for the Jets since Breece Hall got hurt in Week 3, including five catches in a smidge more than five quarters of football. Allen was a colossal disappointment in Week 4 in large part because the Bears offense kept the Jets defense on the field all game long -- the Browns aren't as likely to do the same thing.
MUST-START: Garrett Wilson
START: Quinshon Judkins, Braelon Allen, Harold Fannin, Browns DST
FLEX: Denzel Boston
SIT: Deshaun Watson, Geno Smith, KC Concepcion, Kenyon Sadiq, Isaiah Williams, Jerry Jeudy, Jets DST
The Colts have played the third-most man-to-man coverage this year, with a lean toward single-high safety coverage. No quarterback has seen that specific kind of coverage, called Cover-1, more this season than Aaron Rodgers. And while he is fairly inefficient against it, he has thrown three touchdowns and his pass-catchers average 6.4 yards after catch per reception, which ranks well. DK Metcalf and Roman Wilson have been Rodgers' go-to guys overall, but especially against Cover-1, with Wilson especially averaging 2.96 yards per route run. Wilson has found at least 15 PPR points in each of his past two games and exactly six targets in each game. The Colts also sport some of the ugliest metrics against slot receivers so far this season, including bottom-six marks in catch rate and yards per catch allowed; Wilson is primarily the Steelers slot receiver. He's an interesting flex.
MUST-START: Jonathan Taylor
START: Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf (low-end No. 2 WR), Tyler Warren, Steelers DST
FLEX: Josh Downs, Roman Wilson
SIT: Aaron Rodgers (high-end No. 2 QB), Daniel Jones, Pat Freiermuth, Michael Pittman, Darnell Washington, Colts DST
Ollie Gordon impressed last week, taking advantage of good blocking by his O-line, especially when the Vikings loaded the box early in the third quarter and he rumbled for 53 yards with a lot of after-contact gains. He's tough, he's got some burst, and he can catch a little, too. It's easy to see him as the Dolphins' preferred back as of now, but I bet that could flip if Jaylen Wright breaks a couple of runs himself. That might be the only reason Gordon is a tough start this week: The matchup isn't as scary as it looks. The only team to struggle running the ball on Cincinnati was Houston; the Bucs and Steelers each fielded a running back with 20 PPR points, and Bhayshul Tuten was on his way toward that same number but had two touchdowns called back by penalties (teammate Chris Rodriguez Jr. scored and averaged 5.8 yards per carry). The Jaguars duo combined for 20 PPR points, even with the penalized plays. I'm impressed by the Dolphins run blocking and think it could lead to some more good gains for Gordon, which is why I'm OK starting him.
MUST-START: Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown
START: Mike Gesicki, Ollie Gordon (low-end No. 2 RB), Bengals DST
FLEX: Dohnte Meyers
SIT: Malik Willis, Malik Washington (bye-week PPR WR), Mitchell Tinsley, Chris Bell, Greg Dulcich, Dolphins DST
The Titans run defense hasn't been bad at all, but they have been the most run-on defense in the league through four weeks (27.5 RB runs per game). Despite that volume, they've let up just 3.6 yards per carry (seventh best), and they've held opposing backs to a lean 4.5% explosive rush rate (ninth-best), and just 2.41 yards after contact per rush (fifth-best). So they don't give up a lot of big runs and have even done decently since Week 1, holding Derrick Henry in check last week and slamming on the Giants and Eagles running backs in Weeks 2 and 3. This isn't good news for David Montgomery or Woody Marks, neither of whom is particularly efficient this season. However, Marks has found the end zone from inside the 10-yard line in each of the Texans' past two games and has a notable role in the passing game. He's also been within seven snaps of Montgomery in three of four games, so this backfield is already close to a split. If we're giving Marks the nod near the goal line and in the passing game, then he's the one to be interested in starting, even in a tough matchup.
MUST-START: Nico Collins
START: Woody Marks (borderline No. 2 PPR RB), Texans DST
FLEX: Carnell Tate
SIT: C.J. Stroud (bye-week QB), Cam Ward, Tony Pollard, David Montgomery, Dalton Schultz, Wan'Dale Robinson, Jaylen Noel, Tyjae Spears, Titans DST
Jameis Winston did have some terrific throws last week against the Cardinals, including both touchdowns to Malik Nabers and Theo Johnson. However, there were more off-target throws and late reads, the same kinds of things we saw from him in Week 3. Against almost any other defense I'd head for the hills on Winston, but the Commanders pass defense isn't too far off from the Cardinals. In fact, they've allowed more than 30-plus Fantasy point games to quarterbacks than the Cardinals; they play just as much zone coverage as the Cardinals; their pass rush pressure rate is slightly higher than the Cardinals but not when they don't blitz; and they have a significantly lower sack rate than the Cardinals. So if we're to fade Winston, it's because of who he is as a thrower and not the matchup at all. I'd buy back into him finding at least decent totals, especially with him connecting with Isaiah Likel
