Amid a plunge in the global stock market... Securities market: “Excessive concerns about data center regulation”

While the U.S. and domestic stock markets fell sharply due to concerns about strengthening data center regulations after the U.S. midterm elections, analysts analyzed that it is difficult for securities companies to interpret the possibility of construction delays as a direct suspension of AI investment.

On the 6th, Yuanta Securities [003470] and Daishin Securities [003540] published a report stating that the market is excessively reflecting concerns about investment contraction due to AI data center regulations.

Although the risk of construction delays due to regulations has increased, there is still insufficient evidence that existing supply contracts or semiconductor performance have been damaged.

Yuanta Securities analyzed that up to 30.3 gigawatts (GW) of the planned capacity of U.S. data centers in 2028 could be exposed to regulations, based on a hypothetical scenario of halting new data center construction established before the election. This corresponds to 48.7% of the total net expansion forecast. However, this is only a scale that can be affected by regulations, and is not a quantity that has confirmed construction delays or investment cancellation.

Risks also vary depending on whether construction begins.

According to Yuanta Securities, 75% of the 33.8GW of data centers targeted for completion in 2027 in 20 major U.S. states have already begun construction. On the other hand, the new expansion plan for 2028 is relatively vulnerable to changes in licensing policy.

Researcher Lee said, “Without confirmation of actual order cancellations and lowered profit estimates, there is limited reason to participate in the current sell-off.”

Daishin Securities also believed that the market reaction due to concerns about investment contraction was excessive as Big Tech's trend of expanding AI facility investment continues.

It is believed that the possibility of a full-scale suspension of data center construction at the federal level is limited. Lee Gyeong-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, "With the Democratic Party's landslide victory, we will have to endure concerns about delays in data center construction and rising costs, but the possibility of a complete halt to construction at the federal level is limited."

However, the judgment that ‘concerns are excessive’ does not mean that there will be no investment setbacks. Experts pointed out that it is necessary to check whether regional licensing, power grid connection, and construction completion schedules are delayed, and whether the aftermath leads to the cancellation of orders for servers, graphics processing units (GPUs), and memory.

Yuanta Securities said that if semiconductor companies' profit estimates for 2027-2028 are lowered, there is a need to reexamine the outlook that views the current sharp decline as an excessive reaction.

A short-term test is Coreweave's third quarter results scheduled for next week.

Daishin Securities focused not only on sales growth, but also cash flow, interest expenses, and future financing plans. If the investment plan and financing capacity are maintained, it could serve as an opportunity for a recovery in semiconductor investment sentiment, but if the borrowing burden increases or the investment plan is lowered, it is predicted that additional adjustment pressure may arise across AI-related stocks.

On this day, the KOSPI index plunged more than 8%, falling below the 5,000 mark during the day. Due to the rapid drop, a circuit breaker was activated immediately after opening, halting trading for 20 minutes.