International oil prices rose sharply on Thursday (1st). (Bloomberg file photo)
[Financial Channel/Comprehensive Report] Chinese refiners suspended the export of petroleum products in October. At the same time, the United States was reported to be preparing to send more military forces and aircraft carriers to the Middle East. The market was worried that global fuel supply tension would further increase, and international oil prices rose sharply on Thursday (1st).
The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in December rose 4.37% or US$4.28 to US$102.31 per barrel.
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U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in New York rose 2.71% or $2.45 to trade at $92.87 a barrel.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the United States is sending a third aircraft carrier and up to 10,000 US troops to the Middle East. U.S. President Trump is considering resuming military strikes against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections.
Trump told reporters before leaving the White House and heading to the campaign trail that he was evaluating various options for Iran and said the United States would take further action if Iran could not reach an agreement.
Affected by relevant news, oil prices fluctuated violently during the session. Oil prices fell by about 1% in early trading, but Reuters later reported that Chinese refiners had suspended exports of petroleum products to regions outside Hong Kong and Macau for an undetermined period. Oil prices reversed immediately after the news was announced.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo pointed out that China's export restrictions may reflect market doubts about the supply of domestic petroleum products. It remains to be seen whether relevant measures will further increase demand for crude oil imports after China's recent decline in crude oil and fuel inventories.
It is worth noting that the current global diesel market supply is quite tight. Although crude oil continues to flow into the market, the supply of diesel and other refined oil products is still insufficient due to damage to refining infrastructure in the Gulf region and Russia.
Russia, one of the world's major diesel exporters, has extended its diesel export ban until the end of October. Industry insiders believe that the global diesel shortage may not be alleviated until next year. Russian President Vladimir Putin even stated that Russia will not resume supply of diesel to the global energy market until sanctions against Moscow are lifted.
Hamad Hussain, senior climate and commodities economist at Capital Economics, said: "The impact of China's restrictions on fuel exports will not be as large as the reduction in refined oil exports from Russia and the Middle East. However, at a time when global fuel supplies are already severely constrained, this has become another source of pressure on global fuel markets."
To ease supply pressure, the EU energy working group will meet on Friday to discuss whether to release diesel reserves. Another source revealed that the Trump administration has asked Germany and France to release emergency diesel stockpiles, otherwise they may face U.S. measures to ban diesel exports.
On the other hand, the war in Iran continues and diplomatic negotiations have made limited progress recently. On Tuesday, three oil tankers flying the Liberian flag were hit by unknown objects while passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Maririsks, a shipping intelligence service company, issued a report on Wednesday confirming the relevant incidents.
Sources said that Iran is preparing for a "broader and tougher response" if the United States resumes large-scale military attacks; at the same time, Iran continues to promote diplomatic efforts, but Iranian officials privately believe that the likelihood of success of relevant diplomatic actions is low.
Continued disruption in global oil and fuel markets has also prompted analysts to raise their average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2026 to $89.05 per barrel. However, analysts also pointed out that Middle East oil exports have shown signs of gradual improvement.
Saudi Arabia resumed loading crude oil from the port of Yanbu on Tuesday after restarting operations on the East-West Pipeline.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs estimates that Gulf oil exports in the past week, including shipments from partially turned off ship positioning transponders, commonly known as "dark exports", have recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day, on par with the 2025 average. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a report on Tuesday that Gulf oil exports doubled in September.
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