Flavio Bolsonaro beats Lula in the first round of the Brazilian presidential election

Conservative senator Flavio Bolsonaro created a surprise on Sunday in the first round of the presidential election in Brazil by beating outgoing left-wing President Lula, whom he will face in the second round on October 25. After counting almost 99% of the ballot boxes, the son of the former far-right head of state Jair Bolsonaro, aged 45, obtained more than 47% of the votes, compared to almost 45% for left-wing veteran Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, 80 years old.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, said he was following the Brazilian election “very closely”, after seeing allies come to power in Argentina, Colombia and Peru. Polls predicted a slight advantage for Lula until the day before the vote. As in 2018, opinion polls underestimated the strength of the right. The vote then pitted Lula and Jair Bolsonaro against each other.

Skip the ad

Almost 81 years old, Lula, who is seeking a fourth and final non-consecutive term, during the campaign called on his American counterpart not to “meddle” in the Brazilian elections. For a first attempt, it was almost a masterstroke for Flavio Bolsonaro. He was nominated as a candidate by his father when the latter was sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup against Lula in 2022.

Worries and disappointments

The two favorites had said they believed in a victory on Sunday, even if the polls in recent days showed them still quite far from 50%. Donald Trump did not support Flavio Bolsonaro, but his influence weighed on the campaign. He has drawn customs duties and sanctions against Brazil since the 2025 trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro.

“I am very worried about the direction the country is taking, because I want to be independent, I don’t want to be anyone’s colony,” explains Maria de Nazaré Azevedo, a 57-year-old civil servant living in Rio. She voted left. “We vote for Flavio Bolsonaro not to vote for the PT. This party has already spent twenty years in government and has done nothing, really nothing,” said Raphael Machado, a 45-year-old lawyer, in Brasilia, referring to Lula’s Workers’ Party.

Returning to power in 2023, the head of state is recognized for his social programs, which lifted millions of people out of poverty in the 2000s. But voters complain about the cost of living and rampant crime. His opponent promised tough tactics against crime and budgetary austerity.