Flávio Bolsonaro and market expectations about fiscal adjustment

Flávio Bolsonaro pleases Faria Lima because the market and some sectors of the business community believe that the senator will make a rigorous and lasting adjustment to public accounts if elected.

But nothing Flávio has said or done so far legitimizes this expectation.

In the Senate, he was a parliamentarian who was absent in major economic debates — always shielded by the captive base of his father, Jair Bolsonaro, aligned with conservative customs and public security guidelines.

As presidential candidate, he has been swimming in the general wave of low discussion of economic proposals, an indelible mark of this election.

The proposals cited by your team rely on outdated clichés presented as a solution, such as the zero-based Budget, or measures that, in practice, do not produce an adjustment capable of meeting the promise of spending cuts of R$300 billion.

In the little he said, Flávio denied what his assistants had stated. He denied that he would change the real minimum wage earnings policy or that he intended to unlink it from Social Security. He rejected saving money "on top" of retirees and the low-income population.

He promised a "treasury" in commissioned positions, reduction of bureaucracy, cutting waste, maintaining social spending. Additionally, he talked about reducing the tax burden. Arguments that resonate well with the campaign for the unsuspecting.

Faria Lima knows that this account is not complete, but prefers to bet on what members of the campaign team said in private conversations.

If Flávio follows his father, the prognosis is not the best either. Jair boycotted tax measures, did not get involved in the Social Security reform, fought for military privileges, defaulted on court orders, ceded new privileges and more subsidies to Congress and accepted the secret Budget. He scared away foreign investors with his anti-environmentalist agenda.

The debate that the candidate decided not to attend would be important to test whether he is prepared to lead economic policy.

The market says it wants change because it already knows what to expect from Lula. But Flávio did not explain what he will do differently. It's a mystery.