Reflection of the fund crisis on the ballot box: Confidence in the government's statements remained at 12 percent

The Yoylelem Social Research Center published the results of the Türkiye Politics Panel Research for the period October 2026.

The research, which was conducted using the CATI method with 2,400 people in 81 provinces between 21-28 October, covered many topics, from the impact of the funding crisis on voter preferences to trends towards political parties, from presidential scenarios to evaluations of Turkey's administration.

THERE ARE INCREASE OF THINKING THAT TURKEY IS MISMANAGED

According to the research, the rate of those who think that Turkey is poorly governed increased from 49 percent in September to 56 percent in October. The percentage of those who think that the country is well governed decreased from 27 percent to 22 percent in the same period.

When asked which political party could solve Turkey's problems, the rate of those who said no party could produce a solution increased from 36 percent in September to 40 percent in October.

CLAIMS REGARDING THE FUNDING CRISIS WERE FOUND BELIEVABLE

One of the prominent topics of the research was the developments that were publicly referred to as the funding crisis. Approximately half of the participants stated that they followed the developments regarding the crisis closely, and nearly 25 percent stated that they followed them to some extent.

Approximately 72 percent of the participants stated that they found the news that some AKP executives made unfair profits regarding the fund crisis credible. The rate of those who said they did not trust these news and claims was measured as approximately 10 percent.

A similar picture emerged in the evaluations regarding the government's statements regarding the allegations. While 65 percent of the participants stated that they did not find the statements of the AKP administration convincing, the rate of those who found the statements convincing remained at approximately 12 percent.

When asked about the responsibility for the fund crisis, 42 percent of the participants pointed to the government and 32 percent to the institutions that supervise the capital market.

Approximately 16 percent of the survey participants said that they, their family, relatives or acquaintances suffered financial losses or were unable to withdraw their money due to the crisis.

FUNDING CRISIS AFFECTED THE TENDENCY TO VOTE FOR AKP

The research also measured the impact of the funding crisis on political preferences. Approximately 15 percent of voters who said they would vote for AKP and 27 percent of MHP voters stated that their tendency to vote for AKP had weakened due to the crisis. Among undecided voters, this rate was recorded as approximately 44 percent.

Undecided and those who will not go to the ballot box are 29 percent

“If the general parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, which party would you vote for?” The answers to the question showed that undecided voters and those who stated that they would not go to the ballot box had a significant weight.

According to the research, 22.5 percent of the participants responded to the AKP, 20.1 percent to the YENİ Party, 5.8 percent to the DEM Party, 5.1 percent to the İYİ Party, 5 percent to the MHP and 3.6 percent to the CHP. The total rate of those who said they were undecided or would not go to the polls was approximately 29 percent.

SLOW AND SPECIAL ARE AHEAD IN THE SECOND ROUND SCENARIOS

In the research, participants were asked about two different scenarios regarding the second round of the presidential election.

In the scenario where Ankara Metropolitan Municipality (ABB) Mayor Mansur Yavaş and AKP President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan came face to face, Yavaş received 47.8 percent support and Erdoğan received 37.6 percent support. The difference between the two candidates was measured as 10.2 points. In this scenario, the rate of those who were undecided was 2.6 percent, and the rate of those who stated that they would not vote was 12.1 percent.