BBVA CEO Onur Genç, who came together with journalists in Antalya at the COP31 Climate Summit, noted that they do not expect inflation to decrease and said: "Inflation must decrease in order for interest rates to decrease. When we tried to manage this business disconnected from inflation, we saw that this would not happen. Therefore, it is linked to inflation. Will inflation decrease next year? In other words, it is a part related to energy. There are many dynamics that can affect next year. It seems that inflation may not come down. In other words, it is between 25 and 25." "We currently estimate that it will be between 30 percent. We do not give an exact figure because it is still not exact. Maybe we need to wait until the end of the year to give something more precise. Let's assume that it is close to 30 percent. If inflation does not decrease, then the interest rate will not decrease."
Emphasizing that young companies do not have a financing access problem, he said, "I think there is a price problem. In other words, SMEs and large companies may not want to use that loan at those prices. Therefore, for that to happen, inflation must fall. Frankly, the external factor has affected this year a lot. I mean, we sometimes ignore it, but the external factor has affected this year a lot, too. Especially energy prices."
Pointing out the importance of where the gold prices are, Genç said, "There is a very serious gold deposit in Türkiye and now even some gold in the banks. Where the gold goes also affects. Therefore, external factors, where the gold goes, where the oil prices go, what kind of spending tendency appears in a period when we are approaching the election, what is done by the government, these are important."
Regarding the problems experienced in the funds on banking and foreign investors' view of Türkiye, Genç said, "The impact on the banking sector, which we see from our own figures, is a limited issue. It is not an issue that affects the banking sector directly. Why? Because it was a part that affected a certain number of players and funds. As I said, a large number of people were affected. But it was not at a level that would affect the players in the banking sector. It was quarantined. I do not think that this issue alone will change the foreign investor's view of Türkiye."
ENERGY DEPENDENCE INCREASES ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY
Stating that wars in the world, energy costs and problems related to supply chains directly affect the economic performance of countries, Genç said that countries that cannot develop their own energy resources and cannot secure their energy supply are increasingly experiencing difficulties.
Emphasizing that Türkiye's acceleration of energy transformation is important not only in environmental terms, but also in terms of economic competitiveness and current account deficit, Genç stated that reducing energy dependency is of critical importance in eliminating Türkiye's economic vulnerabilities. Genç said, "So, without solving this current account deficit issue, we, as a country, will always face a fragility, regardless of political situations. The way to solve it is through this sustainability issue."
Noting that the issue of sustainability has now gone beyond being a responsibility, an environmental responsibility, Genç said, "We were talking about the fact that it is moving towards an unstoppable trend, that it has turned into a phenomenon that goes from the reasons for the existence of companies and countries to whether they can create a competitive advantage. This is our first topic. If countries do not invest in this issue, they lose their competitive advantage as a country. If companies do not invest in this issue, they lose both their markets and, as I said, their competitive advantages as a cost. This business is moving towards an indispensable place."
According to Genç, as well as increasing renewable energy investments, it is also necessary to develop the network infrastructure that will enable the transportation and distribution of electricity produced from these sources. Supporting solar and wind investments with storage systems and strong electricity networks will be decisive for the success of the energy transformation.
SUSTAINABLE FINANCE TARGET OF 1 TRILLION EUR
Referring to BBVA's goals in the field of sustainable financing, Genç announced that the bank has a total financing commitment of 1 trillion euros covering the period 2018-2029.
Genç said: "From the beginning of 2025 to the end of September, we have made a sustainable financing of 250 billion euros. 60 billion euros of this is related to electrification. Approximately half of it is on solar and wind, renewable energy production. But the remaining half, even 55 percent. But we see this. The problem is not technology. The problem is financing. In other words, there will be one project and the banks will say that this is a financeable project. The problem with the projects there is always bankable in that finance." we say.
15 PERCENT EXPECTATION FROM Türkiye
Drawing attention to BBVA's energy investments and financing activities in Türkiye, Genç stated that the group has contributed approximately 8 billion dollars in financing and investment in the field of renewable energy in Türkiye to date.
Stating that Türkiye is expected to have a share of around 10-15 percent in BBVA's total sustainable financing target, Genç reminded that Türkiye contributes 8 percent to the group profit. Pointing out the size of the investment amount Türkiye needs for energy transformation, Genç noted that the country has a significant potential in this field.
Garanti BBVA General Manager Mahmut Akten also touched on the financing efforts for electric vehicles and charging infrastructure and stated that more than 27 billion lira of financing has been provided in these areas in the first eight months of 2026.
A NEW ERA ON THE CARBON BORDER BEGINS IN 2027
Stating that the entry into force of the European Union's Border Carbon Regulation Mechanism in 2027 will have important consequences for Türkiye, Genç said that especially exporting companies should make preparations to reduce carbon emissions.
Pointing out that companies that engage in carbon-intensive production and cannot achieve transformation may face additional costs in the European market, Genç emphasized that sustainability is no longer just an environmental responsibility, but a factor that directly determines competitiveness.
Stating that BBVA has emission reduction targets and road maps for 2030 in 10 sectors where carbon emissions are intense, Genç stated that they follow a policy of not providing financing to the coal sector. He also noted that the bank links its emission reduction performance with employees' variable wage and bonus systems.
Genç stated that he does not believe in the scenarios where interest rates will be 7-8 percent and inflation will be 9-10 percent in America and said, "I don't expect such a thing. I don't know what the Iranian business will be, but I don't think it will be such a big scenario. For example, now, as you know, 10-year bonds have exceeded 5% in America. As soon as it was passed, houses, first mortgages, housing loans reacted immediately. So, in such a situation, I don't think the interest rate will be left at that level instantly. At least at this stage. Therefore, I do not expect a disaster scenario." spoke.
RETURN ON EQUITY IS LOW IN BANKING
Making evaluations about the profitability of the banking sector, Garanti BBVA General Manager Mahmut Akten pointed out that the return on equity in the sector has remained below inflation for the last four-five years. Stating that Garanti BBVA expects a simple return on equity of 27.5 percent for the end of the year, Akten pointed out the importance of making the profitability of the banking sector sustainable and said, "After all, the sector has had a capital return below inflation for four or five years. But as we move into next year, managing the interest margin, costs are increasing, asset costs are increasing. Our risk costs. Therefore, managing them is very important."
Akten noted the following about companies' access to financing: "I generally think that the complaint is not about giving limits, but about pricing. The feedback received is also related to them. Otherwise, in sustainable projects, you can get the return we have just seen, that is, when you modernize or buy an equipment, if there is no problem with your payment capacity in your balance sheet, you can generally get a quick return in many areas. Especially with high interest rates in the last two or three years, companies have delayed this. But the interest burden is still a serious figure, at the point of inflation. And at the same time, those who export "It can be difficult."
There is Akten, who gave the company Uno, which produces bread, to sustainability investments. "We provided financing from Spain for the modernization project we carried out for them, and there was a 37 percent reduction in energy costs. This is a very serious thing, that is, being able to reduce the cost of a product that comes to our table like bread by 37 percent is a very serious opportunity for the future. Turkey is also a very important and strong country in terms of the production industry in that sense," he said.
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE WILL RESHAPE BANKING
Technological developments that will determine the future of the banking sector were also brought to the agenda at the meeting. It was emphasized that artificial intelligence will transform a wide range of areas, from customer experience to operational efficiency, from anti-fraud to credit risk management.
It was stated that artificial intelligence applications create significant opportunities for Garanti BBVA to provide more personalized service to its 18.6 million active mobile customers. It was stated that voice assistants and artificial intelligence-supported customer communication systems are expected to be used more in banking services.
However, it was noted that the use of artificial intelligence creates new responsibilities in terms of cyber security, data security and credit risks. It was noted that the increasing electricity needs of data centers make energy investments more important, and that these facilities should turn to systems that can meet their own energy needs.
FINANCING OPPORTUNITY FOR COP31 Türkiye
Stating that Türkiye's hosting of COP31 offers an important opportunity in terms of international visibility, Genç stated that the organization can contribute to attracting sustainable financing and investment to the country.
Emphasizing that Türkiye's realization of its goals regarding energy transformation will both increase its economic competitiveness and strengthen the country's attractiveness for international investors, Genç said that sustainability should not be seen as a cost item.
According to Genç's evaluations, one of the main issues facing Türkiye is to reduce foreign dependency and accelerate the green transformation of the industry while strengthening energy supply security. The success of this transformation will be possible with long-term financing, strong infrastructure investments and predictable economic policies.
GUIDANCE IS ALSO IMPORTANT FOR THE TRANSFORMATION OF SMEs
Garanti BBVA Deputy General Manager Cemal Onaran also said that sustainable transformation is not only on the agenda of large companies, but SMEs should also be prepared for this process.
Stating that especially small and medium-sized enterprises need road maps on energy efficiency, production technologies and reducing carbon emissions, Onaran emphasized that it is important to provide consultancy and guidance to companies as well as providing financing.
Stating that the bank has 1,250 customer managers working with SMEs, Onaran stated that a significant portion of these teams carry out at least one sustainability transaction every year.
Onaran stated that predictability of revenues, stable functioning of the regulatory framework and price guarantees are important in financing long-term energy investments. He noted that one of the main problems faced by investors is not technological inadequacy, but the income and repayment risks of the projects.
