
Research released on the eve of the election shows stability in relation to the September survey; Marcelo Castro, Ciro Nogueira and Júlio César technically tie in the Senate
AI-generated summary
The Datafolha survey was released the day before the elections for the Government of Piauí and Senate, showing voters' voting intentions. The previous survey was carried out on September 17th.
Governor Rafael Fonteles (PT) has 67% of valid voting intentions and would win the election for the Government of Piauí in the first round, according to a Datafolha survey released this Saturday (3), the day before the election.
Joel Rodrigues (PP) appears in second place, with 28%, followed by Professor Gisvaldo (PSOL) with 2%. Dr. Lúcia Santos (PSDB), Geraldo Carvalho (PSTU), Elizeu Aguiar (Novo) and Professor Jurity (DC) scored 1% each. Ravenna da Inclusion (Democrat) and Santiago Belizário (UP) did not score.
The margin of error is two percentage points, plus or minus.
Taking into account the total votes, Fonteles appears with 58%, against 24% for Joel Rodrigues. Professor Gisvaldo, Dr. Lúcia Santos, Professor Jurity, Elizeu Aguiar and Professor Jurity each score 1%. The other candidates did not score.
Blanks or nulls make up 6%, and undecided are 7%.
The research points to a scenario of stability compared to the previous survey. In the survey released on September 17, Fonteles scored 55% of voting intentions, against 25% for his main rival.
Hired by TV Clube de Teresina, the survey interviewed 1,564 voters in the state between this Friday (2) and Saturday (3). The survey is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under code PI-05565/2026 and has a confidence level of 95%.
The survey also measured voting intentions for the Senate, whose scenario is a three-way technical tie between Marcelo Castro (MDB), Ciro Nogueira (PP) and Júlio César (PSD).
Marcelo Castro scored 28% of valid voting intentions, followed by Ciro Nogueira (26%) and Júlio César. (25%) Tiago Junqueira (PL) comes next, with 9%.
Maria Madalena (PSOL), Jorge Lopes (PSDB), Major Paulo Roberto (Mobiliza), Danniel Rocha (PSTU), Antônio José Lira (Avante), Antônio Barros (Novo), Pedro Laurentino (UP), Francinaldo Leão (PSOL), Dionisio Carvalho (DC), Irmão Evandro Marques (DC) scored 1% each.
Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat), Cloves José (PCO) and Missionário Evandro Craveiro (Democrat) did not score.
Taking into account the total votes, Marcelo Castro leads numerically with 19% of voting intentions, followed by Ciro Nogueira, with 18% and Júlio César, with 17%. Tiago Junqueira appears with 6%.
Maria Madalena, Jorge Lopes, Major Paulo Roberto, Danniel Rocha, Antônio José Lira, Antônio Barros and Pedro Laurentino and Francinaldo Leão each have 1%.
Dionisio Carvalho (DC), Brother Evandro Marques (DC), Toinho Dufrango (Mobiliza), Jardenya Bezerra (Democrat), Cloves José (PCO) and Missionário Evandro Craveiro (Democrat) did not score.
Undecided voters total 20%, while 14% say they would vote blank, invalid or for none of the candidates.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Rafael Fonteles will win the election for the Government of Piauí in the first round.
Very likely · Within days
The Senate will have a second round between Marcelo Castro and Ciro Nogueira.
Likely · Within weeks

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