“For Netanyahu, new elections would be the best scenario” – Now the power poker begins in Israel

When Gadi Eisenkot steps onto the huge stage of his election party in Tel Aviv, his clothing already suggests that he believes he will appear before his supporters as a future prime minister. The former general, who usually wears a burgundy tie with his suit on election night, almost always dressed casually with an open shirt collar.

According to the doctrine of political communication, this color is said to symbolize power and determination. Fittingly, Eisenkot formulates his claim to power at the lectern: "We have to wait for the actual election results. But this much is already clear: Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a Zionist, national majority this evening that is bigger and stronger than his own," says Eisenkot, before immediately calling on the Prime Minister to resign: "A politician who deserves to be called leader would accept the will of the people and announce his withdrawal from politics today."

The next morning, Eisenkot probably felt like an ice-cold shower when he looked at the updated figures. Suddenly it is no longer the opposition camp around his Jashar party that is in the lead, but Netanyahu's bloc. This trend consolidates as the votes continue to be counted. Even if Netanyahu cannot win the necessary majority of 61 seats in parliament to continue his governing coalition, he manages to achieve a surprise success. Almost all polling institutes had completely underrated his Likud party in the run-up to the election, and most post-election surveys were also wrong.

Being underestimated and fighting back from seemingly hopeless situations is a constant in Netanyahu's career. When he became prime minister for the first time, he lost the election resoundingly to Ehud Barak in 1999. He resigns as Likud leader and announces his retirement from politics. Three years later he is back, making a comeback as foreign minister and then finance minister. In 2005 he became Likud chairman again, but suffered another humiliating election defeat in 2006. The Likud only wins twelve of the 120 Knesset seats. Nevertheless, Netanyahu becomes prime minister again in 2009.

In 2019, he was charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust. Nevertheless, Netanyahu managed to agree on a unity government after the 2020 election and remain head of government. He will lose his office in 2021 and will become prime minister again in 2022. Netanyahu has now ruled Israel for a total of 19 years - and his chances of it staying that way are not bad.

In this election campaign he once again demonstrated a combination of political instinct and strategic skill. He consistently focused on the issue of security. This is not without a certain irony. Although the opposition accuses him of not taking warnings seriously enough in the run-up to the Hamas terror on October 7, 2023 and reacting too late on the day of the massacre, Netanyahu managed to present himself as a guarantor of national security.

Only he, according to his central message, can protect Israel from threats from Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza. Only he has the necessary experience – and the irreplaceable relationships with the most important international ally. On his election posters, the Prime Minister showed himself with the US President, flanked by a fighter jet. Donald Trump's official election recommendation could have given him an additional boost in the hot phase of the election campaign.

Netanyahu's warning about the increasing influence of Arab parties probably also contributed to the mobilization of voters. The leader of the Arab Raam party, Mansour Abbas, refused to describe Hamas as a terrorist organization. If such a man were to sit at the cabinet table, it would be a security risk for Israel, according to Netanyahu's message. On election day, cars carrying the Likud flag drove through Jerusalem, playing the Islamic call to prayer as a deterrent and calling for Netanyahu to be elected because the Arabs were voting.

While this strategy worked, it also had the opposite effect. The Arab population went to the polls in unusually large numbers - not least in protest against Netanyahu's government and its controversial security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. The Arab parties achieved their best result ever. And could now become the kingmaker in forming a government.

In the days after the election, the Likud made serious accusations against the Arab parties. “Israel’s elections were stolen,” the party said. It is about an “attack on democracy” with the aim of “Islamizing Israel and overthrowing the right-wing government.” The central accusation was that Raam received money from Qatar in order to finance vote buying. The election commission then asked the domestic secret service Shin Bet to investigate.

Abbas rejected the allegations. Qatar also called it “ridiculous and dangerous.” The Shin Bet confirmed that the investigation was ongoing, but stressed that it was not about "blaming an entire community that voted democratically and legally." The Israeli police and the electoral commission have so far rejected allegations of electoral fraud.

Nevertheless, the allegations are likely to increase the hurdle for the opposition bloc to integrate the Arab parties into a coalition or receive support from them as part of a minority government. This improves Netanyahu's chances of forming a government. “In the past few days, the Prime Minister has withdrawn for hours with his closest confidants to run through all the scenarios,” says an insider from Netanyahu’s power apparatus in an interview with WELT AM SONNTAG.

From his point of view, two variants are now most likely. “Netanyahu could form a unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, a grand coalition.” In this model, Netanyahu and Eisenkot would take turns halfway through the legislative period. Eisenkot should be on his guard, however, because his former ally Benny Gantz agreed to a similar deal in 2020. But before Gantz could take over as prime minister as agreed, the coalition collapsed.

If all attempts to form a government fail, Israel would have to vote again. "For Netanyahu, new elections would be the best scenario. Because he expects that the opposition will not mobilize as many voters again. His own base, on the other hand, has proven to be extremely loyal," said the insider. Netanyahu is a survivor. Gadi Eisenkot, the challenger with the red tie, has now also had to learn this.