Taiwan's maritime transportation is closely connected with global trade. A former U.S. White House national security official warned that if China blocks Taiwan, the impact may spread to the global economy. (Picture taken from the Kaohsiung Port Branch page)
In response to recent voices in the U.S. political arena that regard Taiwan as a bargaining chip in U.S.-China negotiations, two former senior White House National Security Council (NSC) officials jointly wrote an article in the authoritative journal Foreign Affairs to refute, warning that if China blocks Taiwan, it will not only be a geopolitical turmoil, but will also trigger a devastating disaster that will destroy the U.S. economy. The author emphasizes that Taiwan's chip supply directly strangles the lifeblood of the U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) industry. Once the supply chain breaks, global advanced electronic product production capacity may be cut by more than 60% in an instant.
The authors of the letter are Rebecca Lissner and Mira Rapp-Hooper. They served in the National Security Council of the White House under the Biden administration and were involved in national security strategic planning and Indo-Pacific policy. Rapp-Hooper served as the White House Senior Director for East Asia and Oceania Affairs. The author pointed out that up to 97% of the world's high-end logic chips used in smartphones and other advanced electronic products are produced or packaged in Taiwan; Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia are all among TSMC's top ten customers, and the combined market value of these 10 companies exceeds US$14 trillion. The letter submitted and cited estimates indicate that if Taiwan's chip supply is lost, global output of advanced electronic products may drop by 60%.
The letter also cited a Bloomberg report that estimated that a blockade of Taiwan could jeopardize more than $250 billion in trade and reduce U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) by more than 3% a year. The Rhodium Group, a research organization, estimates that a one-year blockade could cost the global economy US$2 trillion to US$3 trillion.
The United States’ ability to deter Taiwan faces a test
In terms of political and official positions, the letter mentioned that US President Trump described Taiwan as a "very good bargaining chip" in US-China negotiations in May this year; Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee a few days later that the US policy towards Taiwan has not changed. However, the author pointed out that the political circles of both parties have become cautious in publicly supporting Taiwan; a July poll by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs showed that if China invaded Taiwan, 38% of the American people supported sending US troops to assist in defense, down from 52% in 2021.
In terms of military resources, the submission quoted estimates that the war between the United States and Iran has consumed US military air defense resources. About two-thirds of the Patriot interceptor inventory has been consumed, and the consumption of the Terminal High Altitude Defense System (THAAD, THAAD) may reach 80%. The article also mentioned that in August this year, the US military relocated the USS George Washington, which was then deployed in Asia, and moved some of its air defense systems to the Middle East.
The author warns that China may therefore believe that the United States lacks political will and military preparedness, and may try to pressure Taiwan to change the status quo through means such as maritime quarantine, blockade, or administrative and customs controls that are below the threshold of war. In order to reduce the risk of misjudgment, the author advocates that the United States should clearly express the importance of Taiwan to its supply chain and oppose using coercion to change the status quo; Congress should also pressure the government to advance the delayed US$14 billion arms sales and security assistance to Taiwan, and plan in advance measures with allies such as Germany, Japan, and South Korea to respond to China's economic coercion.
