Secret services warn of Russian shadow war and sabotage in Germany

From the point of view of the secret services, Germany must become significantly more resilient, especially in view of the threat from Russia, and not just militarily. “Russia is waging a shadow war against us,” said the President of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND), Martin Jäger, during a public hearing of the Parliamentary Control Committee (PKGr) of the Bundestag. It's all about intimidation. “Moscow is betting on our weakness.” There is currently no evidence of a large-scale attack by Russia against NATO states. “However, there could be low-threshold military activities by Russia, particularly in the Baltics.”

In this context, so-called false flag operations cannot be ruled out, he warns. This refers to covert attacks that are designed to be attributed to another actor.

Intelligence services as the “first line of defense”

In the current situation, the intelligence services are “the first line of defense,” emphasizes Jäger, whose service is responsible for foreign intelligence. Since the summer, Russian warfare against Ukraine has intensified significantly. The war is entering a new, extremely dangerous phase. At the same time, Russia is trying to stop arms deliveries.

“We are under attack now, not in 2029,” emphasizes the President of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), Sinan Selen. The year 2029 marks the time window in which Russia could be capable of a major attack again according to certain military scenarios from the Bundeswehr, NATO and BND - and at the same time the time by which Germany and Europe want to have significantly improved their defense capability. It does not mean that an attack is expected in 2029 or that there is no danger until then.

Jäger: Putin has to show “a success”.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is “past the point where he could simply stop the attack on Ukraine without endangering his power base,” analyzes Jäger. Rather, he must show “a success” that justifies his own sacrifices from a Russian perspective.

Planning for homicides is part of the repertoire

Russia is showing its willingness to commit sabotage and murder, says Selen. The spectrum also includes disinformation and attempted attacks such as those at Halle/Leipzig airport. At the beginning of August, a drone prepared with explosives was discovered next to Ukrainian cargo planes. “We have already achieved defensive success,” he adds. The situation is getting worse, which is why the German intelligence services have to adapt their capabilities to those of other European partner services.

Now the focus is also on state elections and local politics

While Russian attempts to influence have focused on nationwide elections in the past, this has recently also become visible in the run-up to state and local elections, says Selen. “There is a very close observation of the political discourse in Germany” in order to respond to it with disinformation. The aim is to “sow discord and uncertainty”.

Meetings of the control committee are generally secret

Selen, Jäger and the President of the Military Counterintelligence Service (MAD), Martina Rosenberg, are usually only available to answer questions to members of the Parliamentary Control Committee in secret meetings. A public hearing only takes place once a year.

In this electoral period, only parliamentarians from the Union, SPD and Greens are represented in the committee that keeps an eye on the secret services. Candidates from the ranks of the AfD faction and the Left faction each failed to achieve the necessary majority in elections.

Other topics, such as the dangers of right-wing extremism, left-wing extremism, international terrorism or Chinese espionage, which were more focused on in previous hearings of the committee, take up less space this time.

Reform proposals are on the table

The Bundestag still has to discuss a federal government bill that provides for an expansion of the powers of the BfV and BND. In special cases, in addition to reconnaissance, they should also carry out operational tasks in the future, for example to stop cyber attacks or sabotage arms projects.

“Russia has crossed red lines with its hybrid attacks,” explains Selen. Hybrid attacks are a combination of military, economic, intelligence and propaganda means aimed at destabilizing other states.

German democracy and the Bundeswehr are threatened by a variety of dangers from both outside and within, notes Rosenberg. “While we previously spoke of an abstract threat situation, today we are confronted with concrete attacks.”