The heads of Germany's intelligence agencies rarely provide information openly. What members of the Bundestag's Parliamentary Control Committee discuss in their bug-proof meeting room with the presidents of the Federal Intelligence Service, or Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND), and the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), as well as the president of the Military Counterintelligence Service, is strictly confidential.
Since 2016, however, a public meeting has been held once a year, open to journalists, as well as citizens who register in advance. At this year's meeting, held Monday, intelligence officials seemed extremely alarmed. They painted a picture of a country in the midst of a confrontation with Russia.
"The military scenarios envisioned for the year 2029 have already become a reality today in the shadowy world of intelligence," BfV President Sinan Selen said, referring to a recent assessment by NATO experts that, under certain conditions, Russia could be capable of launching an attack on the alliance in a few years.
BND President Martin Jäger said there were no indications of an imminent military attack. Instead, Moscow is waging a "shadow war" through sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and espionage. "No other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive, and concrete threat to Germany," Jäger explained, adding: "Germany is in danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia."
In Russia's crosshairs
Germany plays an essential role in supporting Ukraine through military, financial and humanitarian efforts. Jäger said that this makes Russia see Germany as a "major obstacle to Russia's hegemonic power projection in Europe." "If Germany were to falter, all of Europe — and Europe's support for Ukraine — would begin to unravel," Jäger concluded.
The intelligence agency heads expressed concern over the course of the war in Ukraine. Russia is expected to step up the pressure on the country this coming winter. At the same time, Moscow is attempting to hinder Western arms deliveries.
The intelligence services find that Russia is deliberately attempting to create uncertainty and weaken societal resilience in the European Union and elsewhere. Selen spoke of "coldly calculated destabilization operations."
When asked whether Germany would be safer if it did less to support Ukraine, Jäger said unequivocally that aid to Kyiv is in the national interest.
In addition to espionage, there are an increasing number of acts of sabotage and even assassination operations. Transportation routes, military infrastructure, and the defense industry are particularly at risk.
As an example, authorities cited this summer's attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport, in which Russia is the prime suspect. In August, a drone rigged with explosives was discovered there near a Ukrainian cargo plane. Selen, head of the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Germany's domestic intelligence agency, again pointed to clear evidence of Russian involvement.
'Disposable agents' and organized crime
Germany's domestic intelligence agency is particularly concerned about the increasing use of so-called low-level agents, or people who are recruited locally via digital channels, for example, for espionage, transport services or acts of sabotage. "Social media plays a central role here," Selen stressed.
The intelligence chiefs also said Russian services were collaborating with organized crime groups. An increase in this area is a development that security agency heads say they will need to prepare for more thoroughly in the future.
According to the BND, Russia is gradually pushing boundaries through targeted actions. Examples cited included drone overflights of NATO territory and airspace violations in Moldova. "Russia is very deliberately shifting the bar here toward a kind of new normal," said Jäger.
Jäger said covert operations against individual NATO countries, particularly in the Baltic states, were conceivable, recalling events in Crimea in 2014, when Russian troops appeared as covert units without any insignia. Now the agency heads suggest similar operations could be conducted to test the alliance's ability to respond.
China's long-term challenge
In addition to Russia, China continues to be a concern for security agencies. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution once again warned against attempts to gain access to German know-how through research collaborations and universities. Particular focus is on artificial intelligence, quantum technology, hypersonic technology and biotechnology.
The authorities are also watching the spread of Chinese technology products with concern. Data leaks from connected vehicles or household appliances could be misused. In extreme cases, it is even conceivable that systems could be shut down remotely.
Right-wing extremism on the rise
The topic of extremism also took up a significant portion of the discussion with the parliamentary committee. Regarding right-wing extremism, Selen spoke of an "extremely alarming trend" toward groups of young actors who are prone to violence and are increasingly forming international networks.
MAD President Martina Rosenberg reported an increase in suspected cases of extremism within the Bundeswehr. The increasing radicalization of society is not sparing the armed forces either.
Against the backdrop of growing threats, the heads of the BND and BfV defended a planned expansion of intelligence powers. The plan is to significantly expand agencies' powers regarding the collection, storage, and automated analysis of data. In addition, the agencies are to be given the ability for the first time, to actively combat threats such as acts of sabotage or hacker attacks through counterattacks.
"Amid geopolitical instability, conflict-prone systemic rivalry and hybrid aggression, there is a greater need than ever for tailored capabilities and robust security systems," Selen said.
Jäger said: "If we have these powers, then we will use them. And our adversaries will feel the consequences."
Critics in Germany, however, warn against blurring the line between intelligence gathering and police intervention. In light of these expanding powers, Konstantin von Notz, a member of the Parliamentary Control Panel with the opposition environmentalist Greens, is also calling for greater oversight of the intelligence services. He expects the Federal Constitutional Court to address the plan to expand the powers of the intelligence services.
