Talks in Abu Dhabi: Ukraine's muted expectations

Ukraine is going to Abu Dhabi with a well-rehearsed negotiating team. It is led by Rustem Umjerov, former defense minister and now head of the foreign intelligence service. Before leaving, Umyerov shared Ukraine's goals: a lasting, sustainable peace, security guarantees - and the chance to rebuild the country after the war.

However, these are long-term goals. The talks will be about possible concrete first steps, explained Illja Kotow, head of a political think tank in Kiev. "What questions will it be about? Of course, about a possible stop to hostilities, a sectoral ceasefire or a comprehensive one. And how something like that can be controlled."

Ukraine has long offered all possible facets of an immediate ceasefire. This also includes a ceasefire that only applies to air strikes, or even only to attacks on the enemy's energy infrastructure. Or geographically: on ships in the Black Sea and port facilities. Russia has so far rejected all of this.

Ceasefire - but how?

In Abu Dhabi, however, how such ceasefires can be technically implemented is still being discussed, says Kotow. "The Russian military intelligence service GRU and our military intelligence service HUR have already discussed this in Abu Dhabi. That is important," says Kotow. "Because if we're moving towards a ceasefire, there has to be a mechanism for how that's going to work."

Now there is at least one good example, says Kotov: the regional ceasefire that recently lasted for six days in the Kherson district of southern Ukraine.

However, hardly anyone in Ukraine is currently expecting a political decision on a ceasefire or even peace. The main argument: Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin continues to assume that he will be able to enforce his maximum demands by force.

Pressure on Ukraine could increase

However, US pressure on Ukraine will increase, according to Ukrainian observers. US President Donald Trump recently announced a “big agreement” that could even affect all of Europe. Trump did not give any details.

Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko says on radio station NV that trade deals could play a role: "What is the problem with Trump's administration and his negotiators? The fact that they approach a peace plan as business people and want to make money from it," says Fesenko. "There are obvious risks for Ukraine in the new US proposals. These should be neutralized at the latest during the talks in Abu Dhabi."

One of the considerations from the US administration that Fesenko addresses here: Russia should be able to sell more gas to the European Union again - with the help of US companies. The US administration also wants to use Russian state assets frozen in the EU for an agreement and pursue business interests, said Fesenko.

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