The stock market is likely to remain sensitive to global cues in the upcoming week, with developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and upcoming US inflation data set to be the key factors influencing investor sentiment, analysts said.
The stronger-than-expected US employment data has also brought the Federal Reserve's September policy decision into focus. Investors are expected to assess whether the latest jobs data could influence expectations around the US central bank's policy stance.
"This week is expected to remain highly sensitive to global monetary policy, crude oil prices and geopolitical developments. Investors will closely monitor the impact of the stronger-than-expected US employment data on expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's September policy decision," Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
The US inflation reading will now be closely watched for its potential impact on expectations around Federal Reserve policy and global market sentiment.
"With the latest US jobs data coming in stronger-than-expected and pointing to resilient underlying economic momentum, attention now shifts to the upcoming US inflation data, which could prove critical in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve policy and global market sentiment.
"The direction of Treasury yields and interest-rate expectations will remain closely intertwined with the inflation narrative, while elevated oil prices amid the unresolved Middle East conflict are likely to remain a persistent overhang on market sentiment," Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, founder and CEO of HST Wealth, told PTI.
Crude surge adds to market pressure
Oil prices have already emerged as a major source of pressure for global markets. Brent crude rose more than 8 per cent over the week, while WTI crude gained over 9 per cent, Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money said. The increase came as renewed US-Iran hostilities and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz lifted the geopolitical risk premium in global energy markets.
The Strait of Hormuz will therefore remain an important factor for domestic investors, particularly as markets assess its implications for inflation, the external balance and corporate profitability.
"Developments around the Strait of Hormuz will also remain a critical monitorable given their implications for India's inflation, external balance and corporate profitability," Mishra noted.
Alongside geopolitical developments and oil, foreign investor activity and broader global market trends are also expected to influence the direction of domestic equities.
Foreign flows, rupee and liquidity on watch
Domestic factors will remain on the radar as well. Investors will continue to track foreign institutional flows, movements in rupee, crude oil prices and domestic liquidity, Mishra said.
The combination of global monetary-policy expectations, oil prices and developments in the Middle East comes after another weak week for Indian equities. The Sensex lost 749.08 points, or 0.96 per cent, last week, while the Nifty declined 277.95 points, or 1.14 per cent.
"Indian equity markets remained volatile and under pressure during the week, with the Nifty-50 extending its losing streak to four consecutive weeks, the longest such stretch in five months, as intensifying US-Iran hostilities drove a sharp surge in crude oil prices and kept risk sentiment firmly on edge," Ponmudi said.
With the new week beginning against this backdrop, global markets will be watching US monetary-policy expectations, crude prices and the evolving situation in Middle East. Global markets enter the week facing a familiar set of challenges, with the outlook hinging on US monetary-policy expectations, elevated crude oil prices and the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East, he added.
