Gold and silver may have ended the week on a brighter note, but whether they can keep the shine going is another question. Bullion prices could remain under pressure next week as investors brace for a busy mix of inflation data, crude oil movements and fresh twists in the US-Iran conflict. Both precious metals managed to finish the week with gains in domestic and international markets. However, the recovery may not be enough to signal a sustained turnaround. Investors will be keeping a close eye on inflation readings from major economies for clues on the interest rate outlook, while geopolitical tensions and peace negotiations could add to the uncertainty. With several factors pulling prices in different directions, will gold and silver find their footing or face another bout of volatility? Here are the key triggers to watch next week.
Inflation data and Fed commentary in focus
A series of inflation releases from China, the US, Germany, Japan and India will be closely watched by investors. The readings could provide clues about the direction of interest rates and influence sentiment towards precious metals. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials and US employment data will also remain on the market's radar. Investors will assess these developments alongside movements in crude oil prices to gauge the broader economic outlook. "Gold and silver's momentum remains down as investors will focus on the inflation data from China, the US, Germany, Japan, India, etc along with some Fed officials' commentary," said Pranav Mer, senior vice president, EBG - Commodity & currency research, JM Financial Services Ltd. Chinese economic indicators will also be important, particularly for industrial metals, analysts said. Geopolitical developments are likely to remain another major factor for bullion prices. US President Donald Trump confirmed fresh military strikes on Iran but also said Washington had made "a lot of progress" in negotiations with Tehran. The developments have left investors tracking both the conflict and the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. Mer said markets would also watch progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran to end the war, as well as the Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
Gold and silver recover after a volatile week
The domestic and international bullion markets recorded weekly gains, despite facing pressure earlier in the week. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, December gold futures rose Rs 3,682, or nearly 3%, over the past week to close at Rs 1.42 lakh per 10 grams. Silver futures gained Rs 5,655, or 3.15%, to settle at Rs 1.84 lakh per kilogram. Overseas, Comex gold futures for December delivery advanced $176, or 4.5%, to close at $4,074.9 per ounce. Silver futures climbed $2.6, or 5.4%, to settle at $51.94 per ounce. Explaining the price movement, Mer said stronger-than-expected US nonfarm payroll data and improving consumer sentiment initially weighed on bullion. These developments lifted the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold and silver. "However, prices ended with a strong weekly gain of more than 4 per cent in global markets, following a sharp rally mid-week after the US midterm election outcome that showed Democrats sweeping wins in both the Senate and the House over the Republicans," he added.
Bargain buying supports recovery, but gains remain limited
Precious metals found support during the week as investors bought at lower price levels and traders covered short positions. However, a correction in industrial metals, particularly copper, restricted the gains. The decline in AI, data centre and technology stocks across global markets, especially in the US, also supported bullion by encouraging demand for safe-haven assets. The recovery, however, faced another bout of selling towards the end of the week. According to Mer, gold and silver futures came under pressure on Friday, closing at around $4,074 and $52 per ounce, respectively. Domestic bullion prices could see moderate fluctuations next week as traders respond to international price movements, currency changes and inflation trends. Festive demand around Diwali will also be among the factors influencing domestic trading. The commodity market will remain closed during the morning session on Tuesday due to Diwali-Balipratipada.
