
Escalation in regional waters could drive prices up, while normalization could see them drop to $80 per barrel.
AI-generated summary
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, handling approximately 25% of global oil trade and 20% of liquefied natural gas trade. Tensions between the US and Iran have fluctuated between direct military engagement and economic sanctions.
NEW YORK, September 7. /TASS/. An escalation of attacks on vessels in Middle Eastern waters could push oil prices to $120 per barrel, Bloomberg reported, citing analysts at Goldman Sachs.
If oil exports from the region return to normal, prices could fall to $80 per barrel, Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the bank, told the agency.
On September 1, US President Donald Trump said that US forces had struck Iranian facilities in response to Iran's "failed attempt" to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz and an attack on a US military base in Jordan. The following day, he claimed that US forces had disabled 28 vessels in the waterway. On September 3, the White House chief said oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz had resumed.
The United States and Israel started a war with Iran on February 28. In June, Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding providing for an immediate cessation of hostilities on all fronts, including in Lebanon. However, on the night of July 8, the United States resumed large-scale strikes on Iran, accusing it of violating the agreements reached regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Around 25% of global oil trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas trade passes through the strait. The US administration subsequently effectively signaled an end to the use of large-scale military force against Iran and a shift toward attempting to economically strangle the country through sanctions.

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