The economic team intends to reallocate around R$20 billion in the 2027 Budget to accommodate recently announced economic stimulus measures, the Ministry of Planning and Budget (MPO) reported this Monday (19).
In an official note, the ministry highlighted that the amount represents just over 1% of primary expenses subject to the spending limit. According to the note, the reallocation will be done without raising the expenditure ceiling or changing the primary result target.
The proposal to amend the 2027 Annual Budget Bill (PLOA) will be forwarded to the National Congress as soon as the project rapporteur is appointed.
How will the adjustment be
According to information released by the government, part of the costs of the measures may be absorbed by revisions in estimates of mandatory expenses. Another R$20 billion will be reallocated between areas of the federal administration to accommodate the expected expenses.
The objective is to include the initiatives in the budget without exceeding the expenditure limit established by the fiscal framework, which restricts the increase in spending to 2.5% above inflation in the previous year.
The ministry did not detail, in the note, which expenses will be reduced or which areas will have resources reallocated.
Surplus target
According to Planning, the primary result, which corresponds to the difference between government revenues and expenses before paying interest on the debt, must also meet the expected target.
The draft Budgetary Guidelines Law of 2027 establishes a surplus target of 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with a tolerance of 0.25 percentage points up or down.
The government reaffirmed that it intends to return to primary surpluses in the following years. The indicator is considered important for the trajectory of public debt, although it does not represent, in isolation, an automatic reduction in debt.
In the note, the ministry declared that the commitment to fiscal balance must go hand in hand with maintaining public policies and improving the quality of spending. The ministry also stated that the primary balance has improved by around two percentage points of GDP since 2023.
The relocation proposal will still need to be sent to Congress, where it will be discussed in the 2027 Budget analysis process.
Measures and impacts
Among the initiatives cited in surveys on spending planned for 2027 are changes to social programs, expansion of educational benefits, debt renegotiation and support measures for small entrepreneurs.
Estimates presented by the newspaper Valor Econômico indicate that the set of proposals could have an impact of R$53.6 billion in 2027, with R$45.7 billion in increased expenses and R$7.9 billion in reduced revenue. This total, however, brings together actions of different natures, with different sources of financing and execution deadlines.
The ministry, however, contested the indiscriminate sum of these initiatives. According to the note, analyzes need to distinguish policies financed with private resources, credit operations from public banks and expenses actually covered by the federal budget.
“Initiatives of different natures, with different sources of financing and execution periods, cannot be added indiscriminately”, stated the ministry.
International crisis
The Ministry of Planning argued that part of the measures respond to international crises, rising fuel prices and the effects of tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian products.
The ministry also defended actions aimed at social protection, access to housing, education, public transport and support for small entrepreneurs. According to the agency, these initiatives must be evaluated according to their objectives and specific fiscal impacts.
The note also states that the execution of public policies should not be automatically interpreted as an increase in spending motivated by the electoral calendar.
