Government foresees R$ 12 billion for free passes on weekends, but sector estimates higher cost

The approximately R$12 billion that the Lula government intends to allocate to free public transport on weekends may not be enough to fund the measure. While the Ministry of Cities estimates that the amount covers the free costs, bus companies and financial market representatives estimate that more resources would be needed.

The PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) was sent to the National Congress on October 21st. According to the text, the government must allocate 26.8% of the value of mandatory parliamentary amendments to finance free urban public transport.

Approval of the proposal is among the government's priorities until the end of this year.

The bill considers R$44.8 billion in mandatory amendments scheduled for 2027. With the new rule, around R$12 billion would be allocated to zero tariffs on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays.

The government claims that the measure does not increase primary expenditure or affect the fiscal target, because it only redirects part of the resources already foreseen for parliamentary amendments.

Giancarlo Moreira Gama, special advisor to the National Secretariat of Urban Mobility of the Ministry of Cities, coordinates the department's zero-tariff studies. He says that the ministry's estimate for weekends reached R$11 billion and that, in the team's assessment, there is even time off.

The calculation was made in partnership with Ipea (Institute for Applied Economic Research), in a study that should be published in November. The team used a sample of one hundred cities from different regions and population ranges to estimate the costs of operating the bus systems.

The calculation took into account the mileage traveled on Saturdays and Sundays, which is lower than on weekdays.

Gama states that the annual cost of operating the entire system, every day of the week, is close to R$70 billion. As bus circulation is lower on weekends, he says, the resources provided for in the PEC would be sufficient to cover the free bus service on those days.

The NTU (National Association of Urban Transport Companies), however, reaches a higher value. Marcos Bicalho, the entity's management director, estimates that zero fares on Saturdays, Sundays and holidays would cost around R$17 billion per year on buses alone. Including subways and trains, the value would rise to R$20.8 billion.

According to the association's estimates, movement on Sundays is equivalent to around 45% of that recorded on a business day; on Saturdays, approximately 70%. The bill also includes a 20% increase in the supply of buses, because experiences from cities that adopted zero fares indicate that demand is growing and requires more vehicles in circulation.

Bicalho emphasizes that the numbers are approximate. According to him, the country does not have a national database on public transport systems. The Ministry of Cities is implementing a national information system on urban mobility.

The leader defends the proposal. “For those who have nothing, having R$12 billion is a first step,” he says. According to the entity's calculations, the annual cost of the entire system is around R$90 billion, and the federal contribution would represent 13% to 14% of this total.

In cities where federal funding is not sufficient, says Bicalho, city halls will have two options: reduce the supply of buses, with a possible worsening of the service, or supplement resources with local subsidies.

For Tiago Sbardelotto, an economist at XP, the R$12 billion would only cover urban buses on weekends, without including other modes. In a preliminary estimate, R$16 billion would be needed to guarantee free access on all public transport on these days.

"There is a relevant risk that the Treasury will have to allocate additional resources for the proposal to be effective", says Sbardelotto.

The economist also points out the risk of rising costs over time, if expenses for fuel, labor and maintenance rise above inflation.

In this scenario, he says, the federal transfer may fail to cover expenses, harming the service, or the need for additional resources may grow and increase fiscal risk.

For João Pedro Leme, public finance analyst at Tendências Consultoria, it is difficult to reach a precise estimate. The most recent data on public transport is from 2024, and some cities already offer zero fares on weekends — in São Paulo, for example, buses are free on Sundays. According to his calculations, the amount predicted by the government should be sufficient.

Leme states, however, that approval of the PEC will be difficult, because congressmen may resist linking around a quarter of parliamentary amendments to a specific purpose.

REGULATING THE PEC

For Rafael Pereira, Ipea researcher and transport specialist, if the PEC is approved, its regulations will need to detail what contracts with bus companies will be like and how the subsidy will be passed on.

He states that contracts with operators need to guarantee transparency in costs and create incentives for companies to improve service quality and productivity. For Pereira, without facing regulation, the size of the budget makes little difference.

"You can spend all the money in the world, if you don't improve the service or make it more inclusive, that's money going down the drain," he said.

There are still no criteria for dividing resources between municipalities or rules about what a city needs to comply with to receive the money. He cites examples of possible demands: prohibiting the municipality from reducing the number of buses on weekends and forcing the review of concession contracts to provide more transparency and create quality targets for companies.

The researcher sees this as an opportunity that is still open. The legal framework for urban public transport, approved this year, already obliges municipalities that want federal funding to hand over ticketing, GPS and fleet data. According to him, however, the law only suggests, and does not require, that city halls improve contracts with companies.

TEN LARGEST CITIES WITH AT LEAST ONE FREE DAY

São Paulo: Sundays; 11.4 million inhabitants

Brasília: Sundays and holidays; 2.8 million inhabitants

Belo Horizonte: Sundays and holidays; 2.3 million inhabitants

Belém: Sundays and holidays; 1.3 million inhabitants

Maceió: Sundays and holidays; 957 thousand inhabitants

Sorocaba (SP): Sundays and holidays; 723 thousand inhabitants

Cuiabá: Sundays and holidays; 650 thousand inhabitants

Juiz de Fora (MG): Sundays and holidays; 540 thousand inhabitants

Florianópolis: last Sunday of the month; 537 thousand inhabitants

São José do Rio Preto (SP): Sundays; 480 thousand inhabitants

FIVE LARGEST CITIES WITH ZERO TARIFF