Carbon emissions could rise 'unusually' in 2027 due to strong El Niño

It was predicted that carbon emissions in the atmosphere could increase "extraordinarily" in 2027 due to the El Niño event, which is expected to intensify, weakening the capacity of natural carbon sinks and increasing emissions resulting from human activities.

El Nino and La Nina events affect the annual increase rate of carbon emission concentration in the atmosphere, causing this increase to accelerate or slow down from one year to the next.

According to the analysis of the UK Meteorological Office (Met Office), it is predicted that the level of carbon emissions in the atmosphere may move away from scenarios compatible with limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees, as the El Niño event expected this year is particularly strong.

The strong El Niño event weakens the capacity of natural carbon sinks and leads to impacts that can increase carbon emissions from human activities. Therefore, it is predicted that carbon emissions in the atmosphere may increase by an "unusual" amount in 2027.

It is predicted that carbon emission concentration may increase by 3.51 ppm (parts per million) in 2027 compared to this year and reach a new peak of 432.2 ppm. This increase stands out as the highest annual increase that the UK Meteorological Office has predicted so far.

Scientists made calculations on a separate model to estimate the level of carbon emission increase without the effect of El Nino conditions.

In this calculation, sea surface temperature changes associated with El Niño were not included in the model. As a result, an increase of 2.57 ppm was predicted. This value is significantly lower than the increase of 3.51 ppm in the main estimate, which takes into account the effect of El Niño.

In her assessment of the subject, UK Meteorological Office Scientist Emily Wright stated that they expect a particularly large increase in the level of carbon emissions in 2027 and said, "Strong El Nino plays an important role in this increase. Human activities still determine the long-term increase in emissions. However, plants, soils and oceans absorb a part of the carbon emissions we emit under normal conditions. El Nino events reduce the amount of carbon emissions absorbed by these natural systems in total, causing more carbon dioxide to remain in the atmosphere." shared his knowledge.

El Niño can lead to hotter, drier conditions in tropical land regions, weakening the ability of forests and other vegetation to absorb carbon emissions from the atmosphere. Regions at increased risk of dry conditions during the current El Niño event include parts of Central America, countries in the Western Pacific, and tropical South America.