
According to the simulation published by Gündemar Research and Consultancy, NEW Party came first with 30.64 percent of the votes, while no party can reach the majority required to come to power on its own.
AI-generated summary
Gündemar Research and Consultancy prepared an election simulation that transforms public opinion survey data into parliamentary distribution for the September 2026 period.
Gündemar Research and Consultancy published the election simulation in which it converted the results of the public opinion survey for September 2026 into the distribution of parliamentary seats.
According to the research, NEW Party ranked first in Turkey with 30.64 percent of the votes, while AKP came second with 28.24 percent. The vote difference between the two parties was calculated as 2.40 points.
In the simulation, it was predicted that the NEW Party would be the largest party in the Parliament with 246 deputies. It was estimated that AKP would get 243 deputies. Thus, the difference in seats between the two parties was only 3.
A MAJORITY CANNOT BE ACHIEVED ALONE
According to the projection prepared by Gündemar for 600 deputies, the distribution of seats in the Parliament is as follows:
NEW Party: 246 MPs
AKP: 243 MPs
DEM Party: 58 MPs
İYİ Party: 38 MPs
MHP: 15 MPs
According to these results, although the NEW Party is the party with the most seats, it cannot reach the majority in the Parliament on its own. It falls 55 short of the 301 seats required for an absolute majority.
In the simulation, the total number of deputies of the People's Alliance, consisting of AKP and MHP, was calculated as 258.
CHP CANNOT ELECT VICTORY PARTY AND TYPE OF MPS
One of the striking results of the research was that some political parties were unable to elect MPs in the simulation, despite their vote rates across the country.
In the projection, no seats in parliament were foreseen for the Victory Party with 5.81 percent of the votes, the CHP under the absolute leadership of Ablant with 3.63 percent of the votes, the Key Party with 2.83 percent of the votes, the Re-Welfare Party with 2.51 percent of the votes and the Workers' Party of Türkiye (TİP) with 1.60 percent of the votes.
According to the comparison with the 2023 general election results in the simulation, a gain of 246 seats was shown for the NEW Party, while AKP lost 25, İYİ Party lost 5, DEM Party lost 3 and MHP lost 35 seats.
VOTING RATES OF THE PARTIES ARE ANNOUNCED
According to the results calculated by Gündemar after the distribution of undecided voters and protest votes, NEW Party reached 30.64 percent, AKP 28.24 percent, İYİ Party 7.77 percent, DEM Party 7.63 percent, Zafer Party 5.81 percent and MHP 5.46 percent.
While the total vote rate of other parties was 3.88 percent, CHP was measured at 3.63 percent, Key Party at 2.83 percent, Re-Welfare Party at 2.51 percent and TİP at 1.60 percent.

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