The export economy in the Middle Kingdom is booming: Compared to the previous year, Chinese exports increased by over 36 percent and significantly exceeded expectations. When it comes to trade surplus, the People's Republic could even challenge its own record this year.
China's exports rose significantly in September despite growing pressure from trading partners. Calculated in US dollars, exports rose by 36.3 percent compared to the same month last year, as the customs authority in Beijing announced. Imports also achieved a significant increase of 31 percent. The trade surplus in September was around 133 billion US dollars (119 billion euros).
Analysts had expected exports to grow by around 25 percent and imports to grow by up to 24.5 percent. According to customs, a driver for exports in September was the boom in artificial intelligence. As a result, demand for circuits, storage media or products for storing and transmitting electricity has increased, said Customs Vice Minister Wang Jun.
In the coming quarter, despite the turbulent global situation, customs expects imports and exports to continue growing due to China's resilience in foreign trade, Wang said. China is heading towards its record trade surplus of 1.2 trillion US dollars in 2025. The value for the first three quarters has already climbed to 938.11 billion US dollars (836.9 billion euros).
China's trading partners have long criticized the imbalance and demanded that Beijing boost domestic consumption. The reasons for the weak domestic demand are the consequences of a real estate crisis, high youth unemployment and the poorly developed social safety net.
China remains on track in terms of trade policy
The low demand was also reflected in September trade with Germany. China's exports to the Federal Republic rose significantly by 31.4 percent compared to the previous year. Imports, on the other hand, only achieved an increase of 0.1 percent. China also exported significantly more to the EU (25.3 percent) than it imported from there (0.7 percent).
The Chinese government has not yet changed its trade policy course. With a growth model driven by investments, Beijing continues to focus on future industries such as artificial intelligence and chip technology. At the same time, debt is growing rapidly, especially among local governments.
One effect is that those companies that carry the debt produce significantly more than the Chinese domestic market can absorb. The result: Companies from sectors such as the steel, car or solar industries looked for new markets abroad in order to get rid of the often subsidized products there at low prices.
The EU accuses China of distorting competition. Beijing rejects the accusation of overcapacity and the depiction of a “China shock”. The Ministry of Commerce explained that export growth is linked to improved economies of scale - i.e. lower costs per unit due to larger production and sales volumes in companies -, the ability to innovate and the need abroad for the green transition and industrial development.
Exports of hybrid vehicles to the EU will be limited
The auto industry is an example of problems caused by China's exports. Data from the Chinese Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that only 1.63 million vehicles were sold in China in September - a significant decrease of 28.1 percent compared to the previous year. At the same time, manufacturers exported 923,000 vehicles, which corresponded to an increase of 73.2 percent.
In consultations between Brussels and Beijing last Friday, both sides agreed to adjust imports of hybrid vehicles from China. The number of hybrid and plug-in hybrid cars should be reduced by “several million vehicles” over the next four years, said EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic.
From December, the EU plans to limit Chinese hybrid vehicle imports to 350,000 units per year, with the quota increasing by six percent annually, several media outlets reported, citing EU officials. China's Ministry of Commerce spoke of an "upward revision" compared to the 302,000 hybrid imports listed in the EU statistics for 2025.
“The fact that both sides are negotiating is a hopeful signal,” said the head of the German Chamber of Commerce in East China, Michael Kern. For the more than 5,000 German companies in China, this means that the risk of escalation has initially reduced. Others see a brief respite for the auto industry, which is under pressure. The Chinese export machine to Europe is being throttled somewhat, but the pressure remains high, said car expert Peter Fintl: "European manufacturers have to use the time." The product pipeline is well filled, but the cost base now needs to be optimized.
The US economist Michael Pettis pointed out that it was only an agreement in one industry. This agreement does not take into account the demand-side imbalance in China or the EU's broader role in mitigating that imbalance, and so will have little impact on the EU's manufacturing sector as a whole, he wrote on X.
