Just one week after losing the majority in the midterm elections, House Republicans will meet behind closed doors on Tuesday to pick a minority leader for the next Congress.
The choice to succeed Mike Johnson, R-La., as the top House Republican will be between current House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and Ohio Republican Jim Jordan, a co-founder of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus.
The election — which will be conducted by secret ballot — represents a high-stakes decision for the party that will help determine which way it goes as it looks to regroup from a staggering defeat that saw Democrats flip more than 40 GOP seats en route to winning back the majority.
"I think what develops here will become a larger, external conversation about the direction of the Republican Party," said former House Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry, who held the gavel in an acting role during the tumultuous GOP speakership fight in 2023.
Republicans say they are ready to turn the page on their losses and start rebuilding to regain voters' trust. But first, they will have to decide between two candidates who would bring very different styles of leadership.
In Scalise, 61, House Republicans would be choosing a form of continuity — the No. 2 House Republican since 2023, and someone who has served in broader GOP leadership roles for more than 10 years. He's seen as more moderate than Jordan, and in a letter to colleagues announcing his candidacy, the close Trump ally said his approach to the job would be "conservative and consensus-driven."
"My number one goal as Republican Leader will be to win back the majority and I expect you to hold me accountable to that mission," Scalise wrote. "To succeed, we will need to be effective in both the oversight and legislative fights ahead, but we will also need to lay out a clear and optimistic vision for America."
"We have big tasks ahead, and tested leadership is needed now more than ever," he added.
In Jordan, 62, Republicans would be choosing a veteran of both the House Oversight and House Judiciary committees — two panels poised to play a central role in the new Congress as Democrats plan for a long list of investigations into President Trump and his administration.
A former college wrestling coach known for his pugilistic style, Jordan has pitched an aggressive posture to his colleagues, writing that "offense, not defense, wins elections."
"For too long, we have operated without a clear plan to survive the hour or the day in front of us. That will not cut it against an emboldened and energetic Democratic party," Jordan said in his letter to colleagues, taking a swipe at the House leadership team led by Johnson and Scalise.
"I am battle-tested on the oversight front and I know the Democrats' playbook," he added.
The contest is a rematch from 2023. Back then, Jordan and Scalise were vying to succeed Kevin McCarthy. After multiple candidates failed to secure enough votes, Republicans ultimately voted for Johnson.
Leslie Shedd, a Republican strategist, said the candidates will need to break through a process that can be like "family-on-family violence."
"It's really important … to lay out a very clear, substantive vision of how they plan to lead this conference out of what is now a desert," she said.
John Leganski, who was an aide to McCarthy, the former House Speaker, estimates more than 70% of the incoming House GOP conference was elected after Trump won his first term. As a result, they were largely made in his image or won because of it.
That means, Trump could wield a major influence over the direction of the House Republican conference as a result. So far, he's staying out of the race, though in 2023 he did endorse Jordan.
Leganski said that the size of Democrats' victory last week will limit leverage for Republicans under the eventual House Minority Leader when the new Congress is seated in January.
"I think whoever wins your job is to … number one, try to win back to the House," he said. "And number two, make life as difficult for the Democrats as possible, largely by voting no."
