House Speaker Mike Johnson Faces Political Headwinds Amid Trump's AI Video and Midterm Pressures

If House Speaker Mike Johnson hoped for a relatively calm week back in Washington after the August recess, President Donald Trump disabused him of that notion.

Over the weekend, the president posted a very realistic-looking AI-slop video on his Truth Social account showing the U.S. military attacking Kharg Island as part of its war in Iran. That sent the military scrambling and forced Pentagon sources to say that the key strategic island had not been set upon.

It’s a reminder that the speaker has been pushing a budget resolution for the past few months to boost military spending despite Johnson insisting that “we’re not at war right now.” He will likely reiterate that position when another War Powers Act resolution comes up for a vote. Johnson has spent much of the recess — or as the House likes to call it their “district work period” — traveling across the country to support Republican incumbents as we near November’s midterm elections.

He already had the wind in his face as the sitting president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm. Add an unpopular war, a sluggish economy and high inflation and Johnson’s job is even more unenviable. In a stunning turn, polling now shows that voters view Democrats as better stewards of the economy, which goes against historic sentiment — that Republicans are the party that better handles the nation’s business interests.

And Johnson has done little to show that Republicans can separate themselves from Trump’s MAGA juggernaut.

Ever since last year when Congress passed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” the House has done little more than rubber stamp Trump and keep the lights on. And the one time Congress did pass a big bipartisan bill — on housing, perhaps the most important issue in the country — Trump refused to sign it.

The House will likely do little in terms of passing legislation to reduce the cost of living this week before it leaves — again — for Labor Day and the Jewish High Holidays or when it comes back for the last three weeks before it breaks for members to return to campaign. And even if they could, Congress — and the president for that matter — has few resources to reduce prices that rapidly before an election.

Johnson and House Republican leadership also have to grapple with Trump’s world of make-believe and his apathy.

So far, Trump has shown little interest in campaigning for down-ballot Republicans outside of primaries. As even Republicans in rural areas begin to revolt against data centers, he’s defended them.

He continues to insist that affordability is a “Democrat hoax” and that prices are going down despite evidence to the contrary. Trump also seems uninterested in dispatching the cash bazooka that is MAGA Inc. to help beleaguered Republicans in swing districts and states.

And it appears nobody can convince him that Republicans are in trouble. Over the weekend, he lashed out against stories about Republicans struggling in polling.

“THE FAKE POLLS USED BY OUR CROOKED MEDIA ARE OUT OF CONTROL, AND SOMETHING MUST BE DONE ABOUT IT. FCC TO THE RESCUE!” Trump posted to Truth Social.

All of this makes it difficult for Republicans to come up with or propose policies that make them look like they are at least listening to voters’ concerns. If Trump believes the polls are fake, the party can’t pivot or make targeted outreach.

And Johnson and the House GOP’s unwillingness to break with Trump likely means that voters will punish them for Trump’s perceived sins.

In 2018, Republicans gained a net two Senate seats in the midterms and they held governorships in states like Florida and Ohio because voters did not see the GOP and Trump as one in the same. In 2020, even as Trump lost the White House, Republicans actually gained House seats.

But by doing nothing to address concerns of everyday Americans in deference to Trump they risk paying the price.