Houston Astros clinch playoff berth despite mediocre record, could leverage weak AL and star power for deep run

The Houston Astros are headed to the postseason once again thanks to a Game 162 Rangers loss that pushed the Astros across the finish line. They missed the playoffs last year, but consider it a one-year hiatus. Now, they're back, one year removed from eight consecutive postseason appearances, a stretch in which they went to the ALCS seven times, the World Series four times and won the World Series twice.

This group is nowhere near as dominant as previous iterations. We saw the Astros top 100 wins four times. This group, in fact, will finish as the worst division winner in a 162-game MLB season and the first with a non-winning record (81-81). They only lost 58 games, playoffs included, in 2022. The 2026 Astros aren't great, but they were just good enough to get here.

Given that the team is pretty mediocre and only making the playoffs due to the mediocrity of the American League, it feels likely the Astros won't hang around long in the playoffs. They do have enough talent to get hot in spurts, though, so let's run down how things could come together.

Here are three reasons the Astros could make a deep playoff run:

1. The aforementioned weak AL

The Yankees could be dangerous, but we've seen enough inconsistency in them to be concerned. The Rays offense disappears for nights at a time. Those are the two actually good teams in the AL. The Red Sox could look the part and have the pitching, but they have gone through plenty of bad stretches. The AL Central and the rest of the wild-card field are going to be teams flirting with .500. It's one of the weakest overall leagues we've seen in recent memory. To be clear, the Astros are one of those weak teams and could easily be bounced, but any playoff team has a chance and the Astros could well be the team that gets hot at the right time and takes advantage of a weak league.

2. Yordan

He will definitely need help, but if we're going to discuss players in the American League who could get hot and carry an offense, there are three names that come to mind: Aaron Judge with the Yankees, Junior Caminero on the Rays and the likely AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez.

Alvarez hasn't been scorching hot the last few weeks, but his season-long numbers are staggering. He led the AL in the entire triple-slash line -- average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and, yes, OPS and OPS+. He finished the season with 42 home runs, 105 RBI and 6.8 WAR, though he fell short of the Triple Crown.

There's plenty of postseason pedigree, too. In 60 career playoff games, Yordan has 12 homers and 41 RBI with a .294 batting average and .551 slugging. He hit the home run that essentially won the 2022 World Series, too. Never count this guy out.

3. The back end of the bullpen

Remember when Josh Hader was arguably the best closer in baseball? He probably fit the bill in 2021 and 2023. He's not far off in 2026. Though he didn't start his season until June due to a lingering injury, Hader racked up 26 saves with a 1.01 ERA and an absurd 0.761 WHIP. He struck out 55 in 44 ⅔ innings. He's not alone at the back end, either. Bryan Abreu got off to an awful start to the season, but proceeded put up a near-2.00 ERA in more than 50 outings. He's back to being a top-flight setup man. In similar fashion, AJ Blubaugh's overall ERA is 3.66, but he cleaned it up and looked solid down the stretch.

The ability to shorten games has been a good formula in the playoffs in this era and the Astros could find an opening here.