In September, the conflict in the Middle East came within sight of Africa, as Iran-backed Houthi rebels captured Yemen's Perim Island.
The island forms the narrowest point of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait which connects the southern entrance of the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is roughly 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Djibouti and 20-minutes by air to Ethiopia.
In early October, Yemen's Armed Forces and their Saudi allies launched a counteroffensive. TheIran-backed Houthis have been firing on merchant ships since the start of the Gaza war in 2023.
The economic consequences for Africa is coupled with a refugee inflow
African economies are already suffering from crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, which is making fuel and fertilizer in particular scarce and more expensive.
If the Bab el-Mandeb Strait also becomes impassable, the situation could deteriorate. Shipping companies would have to make detours via the Suez Canal, controlled by Egypt or the southern tip of Africa, as some already do. The additional costs would be pass on to consumers.
The human cost of the escalation in Yemen hit Djibouti almost immediately. According to the UN refugee agency (UNHCR), at least 3,700 refugees have crossed from Yemen into Djibouti since September 10. Most of those who made it to the Obock region are women, children, and older people.
UNHCR is preparing to assist another 10,000 people who have not yet crossed into Djibouti. Obock, on the border with Eritrea, is extremely dry.
"We don't have much water here; there's no groundwater at all," Alessandra Roccasalvo, the UN Development Program (UNDP) representative for Djibouti, told DW. "Everything has to be desalinated."
Djibouti is a strategic military hub on the doorstep of the Houthi conflict
Despite its size, Djibouti — a Muslim-majority Horn of Africa country of just over a million people — is a major player in the region. Its position at at the entrance to the Red Sea makes it an attractive commercial and military shipping hub.
The United States, China, France, Italy, and Japan operate military bases in Djibouti. The German Bundeswehr was also present until 2021 as part of a naval mission to combat maritime piracy.
The country's civilian ports serve as transshipment, or intermediate, hubs for global shipping cargo, goods, and containers. So far, the Houthi advance has not led to empty docks in Djibouti.
But there are still potential consequences, said Roccasalvo: "Basically, there's an economic upswing here — which means, as in any country experiencing an upswing, building materials are needed: cement, raw materials, and other things."
Less of that money comes in because ships now have to pay nearly twice as much for insurance and reinsurance. "Many ships no longer want to pass through the Suez Canal; many ships no longer want to pass through the Red Sea."
Knock-on effects for landlocked neighboring Ethiopia
Ethiopia — the world's most populous landlocked country — handles about 95% of its imports and exports through Djibouti's ports. Price hikes resulting from higher war-risk shipping insurance premiums affect the country greatly.
Shortly after the Houthis seized Perim, Ethiopia's economy faced another, even more immediate threat: On September 23, fighting broke out in the country's northern Tigray region.
Since then, the Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) have reportedly made gains against the Tigray-led rebel coalition that aims to overthrow the national government. The rebels briefly advanced toward the main corridor used for transporting goods between Djibouti's ports and the Ethiopian hinterland.
According to observers, the ENDF's advances have since reduced the threat of yet another trade blockade — but as long as the conflict remains unresolved, the situation could potentially deteriorate again.
For months now, Ethiopia has been suffering more than almost any other African country from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and has already had to ration fuel at times. In the long term, the country aims to reduce its dependence on imports, for example by powering vehicles with domestically generated electricity instead of imported gasoline.
Can the conflict in Ethiopia affect Bab el-Mandeb access?
Ethiopia and its northern neighbor, Eritrea, have severed diplomatic ties; other regional powers such as Sudan, Egypt, and Somalia may find themselves siding with Eritrea rather than with Ethiopia.
Eritrea sees itself as facing a threat that Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has reiterated on several occasions: With Ethiopia having been deprived of its own access to the sea since Eritrea's independence, Abiy has often alluded to rectifying this perceived injustice — either through a political agreement, as was once sought with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, or by force.
The port of Assab is located on the edge of Eritrea's panhandle — and is often described as the most likely target should Abiy choose the path of aggression. If the fighting within Ethiopia further escalates into a full-blown regional war, this could also lead to additional restrictions on safe passage through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the surrounding waters.
Experts have also raised concerns about the Shiite Houthis increasingly collaborating with the Sunni terrorist group Al-Shabab, which is based in Somalia. Although their ideologies are fundamentally different, they are united by their hostility toward Israel and the US among other things.
What tools are at the disposal of African countries to help remedy the situation?
The three African non-permanent members of the UN Security Council — the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, and Somalia — held an emergency meeting in mid-September on this issue, during which they jointly called for free shipping lanes and endorsed the demand that the crisis in Yemen be resolved under the auspices of the UN.
The situation at Bab el-Mandeb and in northern Ethiopia is once again demanding flexibility from Africa. In fact, some African economies can also benefit from relocation activities: Ports inKenya and Tanzania, for example, are becoming increasingly attractive for transshipment.
And while many countries are suffering from high oil prices, Nigeria's Dangote Group has announced an initial public offering and a new refinery in Kenya.
This article was originally published in German. It has been updated.
Edited by: Benita van Eyssen
