How the Mississippi Senate Race Became a Nail-Biter

As Democrats are celebrating a historic blue wave, eyes are on the Senate race in deep-red Mississippi, where the Democratic candidate led the Republican incumbent by a razor-thin margin of 1,138 votes as of Wednesday evening.

The Associated Press has not yet called the race because it is so close, with Democratic challenger Scott Colom ahead by about 0.1%—he has so far earned 49% of the vote compared to Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith’s 48.9%, with 96% of votes counted. It’s a stunning nail-biter of a race that, in the weeks leading up to Election Day, polls had suggested would likely be won by the Republican incumbent by a narrow margin.

“I can’t recall the last time it’s been this close for a statewide Senate contest—or a statewide election in general,” says Aaron Hitefield, an assistant professor of political science at Mississippi State University. “It’s unprecedented for [Mississippi] to be this competitive for Democrats particularly, certainly in the last 40 years.”

If Colom, a district attorney, wins the race, it would be the first time that Mississippi voters have elected a Democrat to represent them in the U.S. Senate since 1982. A Democratic victory would also be a remarkable shift in a state that President Donald Trump won by a nearly 23-point margin just two years ago.

Such an upset would cap off a string of staggering victories for Democrats, who have so far flipped seven seats in the upper chamber in this year’s midterm elections, including in other staunchly red states like Texas and South Carolina.

Both candidates appeared to be optimistic that the election would ultimately go their way, though they also acknowledged that the race is still too close to call. Colom said in a statement early Wednesday morning, “I am confident we will ultimately flip this seat.”

“The results are all trending in our direction,” Colom said in a speech to his supporters on Election Night. “The reality is, though, we’re not going to get the results tonight. I’m excited about our momentum, I’m excited about where we are.”

“We still don’t have all the votes in, so we’re not calling all of it tonight, but we’re in a very good lead and I assure you, I will continue to be your U.S. Senator,” she said.

It is possible that the winner of the Senate contest may not be determined until the end of the week—or even next week.

The state has five business days after Election Day to count affidavit ballots. An individual would turn in such a ballot, which is also called a provisional ballot, in a situation in which they believe they’re eligible and registered to vote but are unable to cast a standard ballot—for instance, if their name is not in their local polling place’s records. These votes are only counted once election workers verify the individual’s information. Mississippi also permits mail-in ballots that arrive within five days after Election Day, so long as they were postmarked by Election Day, to be counted.

All this means that it’s possible the race may not be called until a week after Election Day, says Emily Ommundsen, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Mississippi.

Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in midterm elections, and that pressure on Republicans was compounded in this election cycle because of historically low approval for Trump driven in large part by the economy, as well as the war in Iran.

“Nearly all counties that had a Senate election on the ballot moved towards the left compared to how they voted in 2024,” she says, though she notes that there are some exceptions. “Mississippi just happens to be one of those elections that was closer and perhaps more ripe for a flip.”

But he cautions that the close contest in Mississippi is not necessarily a sign that the deep-red state is turning blue or even purple. It’s possible, he says, that Republican voters didn’t cast their ballots for a Democrat, and instead stayed home.

“I wouldn’t necessarily read in, long story short, to Mississippi becoming a Georgia—you know, being a fully competitive every election state,” Hitefield says. “But I think it’s certainly moving toward a state that you shouldn’t sleep on when it comes to electoral competitiveness.”

Hitefield also says that there’s a lot of “voter apathy” within the Republican party with regards to Hyde-Smith, and she hasn’t performed as well as Mississippi’s other Republican Senator, Roger Wicker, in past elections. Wicker won his re-election bid in 2024 by a more than 25-point margin. Hyde-Smith, meanwhile, won her re-election fight in 2020 by about 10 points.

Hitefield adds that Hyde-Smith had some “gaffes” during the campaign, when she made some remarks about the rising cost of living that some voters felt were dismissive. For instance, when asked about soaring costs, including beef prices, during an interview with WLOX in February, Hyde-Smith applauded the passing of Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill and went on to say, “It is on everybody’s mind. It is certainly me at my house. And you know, you have so many proteins to choose from. And all commodities go through peaks and valleys.”

Colom’s campaign jumped on Hyde-Smith’s remark, releasing an ad in which people objected to Hyde-Smith’s comment, including one who said in the video, “Pick another protein? Sh**, I’d rather pick another Senator instead.” The ad racked up more than 7.5 million views on Colom’s X account.

Ommundsen points out that Hyde-Smith didn’t make many public campaign appearances in this year’s election cycle; one of the few appearances the Senator made was last week, when she gave very brief remarks at a rally the President held for her in Mississippi.

“I think that it was a real mistake by her campaign, regardless of what the outcome looks like at the end of this,” Hitefield says. “Even if she does win, she didn’t do, really, what she needed to win with any sort of safety. I think that’s something [where] if she does win, she’ll need to think about, moving forward, how to strategize more effectively.”