Many Ukrainians and Europeans viewed news from Washington over the past weekend as a stab in the back by their US ally. First, President Donald Trump announced a deal to buy Russian diesel, which involves a temporary easing of US sanctions against Moscow.
And later Trump announced an allegedly agreed "energy ceasefire" between Ukraine and Russia. Kyiv said the idea had not been discussed with Ukraine, but that it was prepared to halt attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same.
'Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine'
Security expert Carlo Masala of the Bundeswehr University Munich said the developments showed that "Trump is not interested in supporting Ukraine at all, but that domestic US politics and relations with Russia are far more important to him than supporting Ukraine."
He added that the president aims to sway the outcome of the US midterm elections on November 3 through an agreement with Russia.
All seats in the House of Representatives and a regularly scheduled portion of the Senate will be contested in the midterm elections. Polls suggest that Trump's Republican Party could lose its majority in the House. A loss of the Republicans' Senate majority is also possible. Surveys indicate that American voters are unhappy with high fuel prices, and the US president apparently hopes to influence prices through diesel shipments from Russia.
Observers, however, consider Trump's hopes that Russian diesel shipments could affect prices in the US illusory.
"The volume is so small that it will have absolutely no effect on prices," Thomas Jäger of the University of Cologne told German public broadcaster ARD.
The political scientist added that shipments planned before the midterm elections would not even cover US diesel demand for a single day.
"The same applies to any shipments that may arrive afterward, if they materialize, they will have no effect on prices either," he said.
Trump's goal, Jäger said, is simply "the story" — showing voters that he is trying to solve a problem that matters to them.
'No concrete military benefits for Russia'
The main criticism from Kyiv and EU countries is that Russia will use the revenue from diesel sales to finance its war against Ukraine.
Carlo Masala, however, does not foresee the agreement with the US having "any concrete positive military effects" for Russia.
He points out that Washington had already temporarily suspended sanctions on Russian oil exports in March this year, shortly after the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran.
"Despite the money Russia has and has received, it has no military strategy for making further advances in the Donbas. The issue is more about the political impact and the symbolism of the Americans striking separate deals with the Russians at Ukraine's expense," the expert said.
Another cause for concern in Kyiv could be US threats to suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine and block the PURL (Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List) program unless Ukraine halts its attacks on Russian oil refineries. Under the PURL program, European countries procure US weapons for Ukraine.
European alternatives to US intelligence
A possible US decision to stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine for strikes on Russian territory would have "dramatic" consequences for Kyiv, Masala said, but European intelligence, particularly from France, could help mitigate the impact.
While French intelligence is "not as comprehensive as American intelligence," the Ukrainian military already uses it to carry out strikes in Russia with French weapons systems.
As for the weapons European countries procure from the US for Ukraine under the PURL program, Masala noted that the program's most important component — interceptor missiles for air defense — has barely been available to Ukraine since the start of the war with Iran.
Support for Ukraine across both US parties
Ahead of the US midterm elections, experts point out that Ukraine enjoys broad support not only among Democrats but also among Republicans. One example is the bipartisan passage this summer of legislation to tighten US sanctions against Russia, known as the "Lindsey Graham Act," named after its Republican congressional sponsor, who has since died.
Signed by Trump in September, the law gives the president a broad range of tools. He can impose sanctions on Russian officials, oligarchs, financial institutions and Russia's shadow fleet, which is used to circumvent restrictions on oil exports. He can also impose punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian energy products.
"Trump may resist, but political forces, particularly after the US midterms, may push the administration in the direction of trying to seek an end to the war by using the tools available," former US diplomat Daniel Fried told DW.
He added that the "Lindsey Graham Act" and the 2022 law banning US imports of Russian oil are "not absolute, but strong barriers against dumb ideas like a unilateral unrequited diesel deal with Russia."
Several Democratic and Republican senators cited this legislation in a joint statement in which they described the diesel deal with Russia as illegal, calling on the US government to "immediately correct" its decision.
This article was originally published in Ukrainian
