
隨著AI伺服器、HPC及AI ASIC需求持續成長,ABF載板市場進入新一輪超級循環,供應缺口擴大及價格季調推升,欣興、南電、景碩三大台廠上週股價同步創歷史新高,單週漲幅分別達10.1%、17.7%、9.1%。外資預估ABF載板漲勢將延續至2027年第四季,缺貨情況至2028年前難解,法人看好廠商獲利同步攀高。
AI-generated summary
AI伺服器、高速運算及AI ASIC應用需求持續成長,帶動ABF載板市場進入新一輪超級循環,供應缺口擴大推升價格。
台灣IC載板廠欣興(3037)、南電(8046)、景碩(3189)上週股價火力全開,同步衝上掛牌天價,單週分別大漲10.1%、17.7%、9.1%。(資料照)
〔記者卓怡君/專題報導〕隨著AI伺服器、高速運算(HPC)、AI ASIC等相關應用需求持續強勁,ABF載板市場正式進入新一輪向上超級循環,供應缺口逐步擴大,價格也逐季調漲,外資預估,ABF載板價格上漲趨勢將一路延續至2027年第4季,缺貨情況到2028年前都難以解決,台灣IC載板廠欣興(3037)、南電(8046)、景碩(3189)上週股價火力全開,同步衝上掛牌天價,單週分別大漲10.1%、17.7%、9.1%。
今年AI運算需求持續由模型訓練延伸至大規模推論與代理式AI(Agentic AI),最近Meta推出殺手級AI助手Muse,進一步點燃代理式AI的應用,再推動新一波CPU與AI ASIC需求,調查機構Gartner預估,今年全球伺服器出貨量約1400萬台,年增11.6%,其中AI伺服器約370萬台,年增55.9%,將持續支撐高階ABF載板需求;隨著新世代AI產品推出,採用的載板及PCB板尺寸更大,層數更多,在上游原材料T-glass玻纖布供應量持續緊缺下,法人預估ABF載板2027年、2028年供需缺口幅度各為25%、36%,載板廠的毛利率與獲利也將同攀高峰。
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欣興集中火力擴充高階ABF載板,未來多數產能已被大客戶預訂,整體訂單能見度佳,且獲利結構將大幅提升。欣興指出,ABF載板價格策略將採取滾動式調整,營收有望逐季成長,隨著ABF載板調漲售價,再加上稼動率提升以及良率改善,有助毛利率與獲利表現。
南電是目前市場上採取ABF載板現貨價格的重要供應商,法人預估,南電可強力受惠於ABF載板產業的供需短缺及持續漲價,營收與獲利可望維持強勁成長。
景碩今年接到輝達最新伺服器的CPU與GPU載板大單,龐大訂單促使景碩啟動新一輪擴產,法人指出,景碩明年ABF載板總產能將增加約25%,帶動明年獲利有望較今年倍增。
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AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
ABF載板價格上漲趨勢將持續至2027年第四季
Likely · Within months
ABF載板供需缺口將於2027年達25%,2028年達36%
Possible · Within years
景碩明年ABF載板總產能將增加約25%,獲利有望較今年倍增
Possible · Within years

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