Voters in Iceland have rejected a government proposal to reopen accession talks with the EU after a closely fought referendum campaign that divided the country against a backdrop of global volatility.
After a long and anxious night for those on both sides of the debate, the no camp ended up with 52.8% of votes on Sunday morning and the yes camp with 47.2%. Voter turnout was high at 82.5%.
The vote was held in the shadow of repeated threats by Donald Trump to invade or acquire neighbouring Greenland. Although Iceland is a Nato member, supporters of EU membership said European solidarity would provide greater protection if Trump ever made similar threats towards the smaller, Arctic island.
At a press conference the prime minister, Kristrún Frostadóttir, said the campaign had “raised the debate in Iceland to a higher level” while acknowledging that there were aspects that “could have been done better”.
Given how close the outcome was, she said, it was important to respect the views of yes voters. But she said: “It is quite clear that this matter will not move forward under this government.”
She said the government would wait to decide on whether to submit a parliamentary resolution formally withdrawing its EU membership application. Iceland originally applied in 2009 after the financial crash but pulled out of talks in 2013, saying it could not go any further without a referendum.
There will be disappointment in Brussels, which had been keen to welcome a wealthy new member and appeared willing to compromise with Iceland on thorny issues such as fishing to facilitate its accession.
The yes campaign had argued that joining the EU could offer greater security amid war in Ukraine and the Middle East, and given the US president’s unpredictable attitude towards the Arctic.
But the no campaigners’ warnings that EU membership would threaten the country’s sovereignty and fishing waters turned the vote in their favour.
Their victory quickly attracted the attention of anti-EU leaders. The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen wrote on X: “At a time when some are pushing for greater federalism and the transfer of sovereignty to the European Commission, this vote reminds us that another Europe is possible, a Europe of free, sovereign nations cooperating voluntarily on matters of common interest.”
Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, wrote: “Congratulations to Iceland on voting to keep their independence.”
The government in Reykjavík had framed its membership plan as a “now or never” moment, and Kristrún told voters earlier in August that a no vote would put all EU speculation aside.
On Sunday, she told RUV that she hoped the vote would not leave the nation divided.
Kristrún, who spoke at public meetings around the country in the final weeks in support of yes, said: “I don’t experience this as hurt. I know some people have been in a state of shock, but now I’ve sat with a large group of people across the country and people are completely open to different outcomes.”
She acknowledged that many people in Iceland, particularly from rural areas, had concerns about the potential impact on agriculture, fisheries and natural resources of joining the EU. “I promise that we will handle these issues well and keep these concerns in mind,” she said.
The vote exposed a stark divide between rural and urban areas, with the capital, Reykjavik, the only area in the island nation of 400,000 people where a majority supported yes.
The government had pledged to hold a referendum on whether to reopen the accession talks when it came into office, with Kristrún telling the Guardian at the time that it was a “necessary step forward”. After Trump renewed his threats to invade Greenland at the start of this year and amid a greater global focus on the Arctic, the government announced that the referendum would be brought forward.
Hulda Þórisdóttir, a politics professor at the University of Iceland, said she was not surprised by the result given the tone of the latter stages of the campaign, with misinformation spreading and the considerably bigger financial resources of the no campaign.
“No won due to a combination of factors: a strong feeling that the EEA [European Economic Area] is all we need, a sense of Icelandic exceptionalism, economic self-interest and a lot of misinformation among the least engaged – for example, ‘I don’t want my son to have to join the EU army,’” Hulda said. “But very importantly, it seems clear to me that the no campaign was much, much better funded.”
Reaction from Brussels was muted. António Costa, the European Council president, told Kristrún on Sunday the bloc “fully respects the democratic choice” of the island’s voters not to resume EU membership talks, a spokesperson said. “Iceland remains one of the EU’s closest and most trusted partners,” said the spokesperson.
