IEA: Global oil supply decreased by 1.6 million barrels per day in August

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report for August, the decrease in global oil supply was determined by the decrease of approximately 2 million 600 thousand barrels per day in Saudi Arabia's total oil production.

The report stated that due to increasing security risks, exports from the west coast of Saudi Arabia were severely restricted and the country's crude oil supply decreased to 6 million barrels per day, the lowest level in more than 30 years.

The production of the OPEC+ group, consisting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-OPEC producing countries, decreased by approximately 1 million 840 thousand barrels per day in August compared to the previous month, falling to 38 million 780 thousand barrels. In addition to the loss of production in Saudi Arabia, the restriction of Iranian oil supply due to the US naval blockade was effective in this decline.

Production of countries outside OPEC+ increased by approximately 240 thousand barrels per day, reaching 61 million 320 thousand barrels. In this increase, the increase in the production of petroleum liquids of the USA and the United Arab Emirates came to the fore.

Thus, global oil supply decreased by 1 million 600 thousand barrels per day in August compared to the previous month, falling to 100 million 100 thousand barrels.

PRODUCTION IN THE GULF DECREASED BY 2 MILLION BARRELS DAILY

In August, the oil supply of producers in the Gulf decreased by approximately 2 million barrels per day compared to the previous month, falling to 21 million 900 thousand barrels. This amount remained 10 million 100 thousand barrels per day below the level before the US/Israel-Iran War.

While the IEA postponed its expectation for the recovery of oil production in the Gulf to 2027, it expects global oil supply this year to be approximately 100 million 700 thousand barrels, with a decrease of 5 million 700 thousand barrels per day compared to the previous year.

Next year, with the recovery of production in the Gulf region, global oil supply is expected to increase by approximately 8 million barrels per day compared to this year, reaching 108 million 700 thousand barrels.

IEA REVISES ANNUAL DEMAND FORECAST DOWNWARDS

The IEA revised its global oil demand forecast for this year downwards by 940 thousand barrels per day compared to last month, due to the lack of progress in the negotiations between the USA and Iran, continued disruptions in Gulf oil exports and fuel prices reaching record levels.

Accordingly, global oil demand is expected to decrease by 2 million 500 thousand barrels per day this year compared to last year, decreasing to approximately 102 million 400 thousand barrels.

Next year, global oil demand is expected to increase by approximately 2 million 600 thousand barrels per day, reaching 105 million barrels.