IEA Slightly Raises 2026 Global Oil Supply Forecast, Projects Decline This Year

MOSCOW, June 17. /TASS/. The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast for global oil supply in 2026 by 0.2 mln barrels per day (bpd) compared with its previous report, according to the agency's latest publication. As a result, global oil supply is expected to decline by 3.9 mln bpd this year to 102.4 mln bpd.

The IEA noted that, as inventories are replenished and the situation in the Middle East normalizes, global oil supply is projected to increase by nearly 8 mln bpd in 2027, reaching 110.3 mln bpd.

The agency also noted that global oil supply has fallen to 94.5 mln bpd, which is 600,000 bpd below the April level and 13.6 mln bpd below the pre-conflict level.

The IEA added that the projected decline in oil supply of slightly less than 4 mln bpd this year reflects the agency's expectation that exports through the Strait of Hormuz will begin recovering from the third quarter of this year. At the same time, the agency noted that only a gradual increase in production in the Persian Gulf countries is expected in the near term as exports through the strait progressively rise, while a full recovery is expected to take at least several months.