OPEC+ countries plan to boost oil supply by nearly 14 million bpd from 2025 levels to 64.5 million bpd by 2050, increasing their global market share to 52%. By 2030, supply is projected at 55.3 million bpd, with non-OPEC+ supply also rising.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham al-Ghais dismissed the IEA's prediction of an oil supply glut, citing a lack of factual basis. He emphasized OPEC's focus on fundamentals rather than speculative forecasts, warning that such headlines increase market volatility.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly increased its 2026 global oil supply forecast by 0.2 mln bpd. However, it projects a significant decline of 3.9 mln bpd for 2024, with supply falling to 102.4 mln bpd. A recovery is anticipated in 2027.
A war launched by Donald Trump against Iran in late February, aiming for regime change and military destruction, has concluded with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Despite initial ambitious goals, Iran withstood intense bombing, emerging with greater leverage. The agreement, a 60-day ceasefire extension, defers complex issues like Iran's nuclear program and sanctions relief to future negotiations.
A war launched by Donald Trump against Iran in late February, with goals of regime change and military destruction, has concluded with a deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Despite initial ambitions, Iran withstood intense bombing, emerging with greater leverage. The agreement, a 60-day ceasefire extension, defers complex issues like nuclear program limitations and sanctions relief to future negotiations.
Italy and Japan are strengthening diplomatic ties, focusing on supply chains and technology cooperation. The leaders aim to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and boost semiconductor manufacturing through joint ventures.
Union Minister Suresh Gopi stated that fuel prices will be reviewed based on crude oil supply, amid recent hikes in petrol, diesel, and LPG due to West Asian conflict disruptions. Minister Hardeep Singh Puri will make the final decision.
Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export terminal, is a focal point in the US-Israel war, with potential strikes threatening global oil prices and Iran's revenue. US President Trump has threatened to "assume total control" of Iran's oil industry.
Russia and Saudi Arabia, major oil producers, are strengthening ties through OPEC+ and joint ventures, despite Western sanctions on Russia and UAE's exit from OPEC. Their alliance aims to stabilize oil prices and explore economic diversification, though underlying tensions and differing strategic goals persist.
South Korea's Industry Minister announced that expected crude oil imports for August are steadily increasing, projected to reach 80% of normal levels by July. The government has secured alternative natural gas supplies and extended its oil reserve swap program to mitigate potential disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on G7 leaders at a Paris conference to help combat Iranian terrorism by targeting its financing. He proposed a new framework for "aggressive and targeted" sanctions, emphasizing the need for defined timelines and reviewing outdated designations to focus on sophisticated evasion schemes.
India navigates oil supply shock from Strait of Hormuz closure via crude diversification and increased Russian imports. Despite disruptions, strategic sourcing and alternative routes ensure energy security, though LPG/LNG supplies are impacted.
The US Treasury has granted a 30-day extension for countries to import Russian oil already at sea, aiming to mitigate supply shortages exacerbated by the Iran war and reduce price pressures. This policy shift aims to assist developing nations while potentially impacting Russia's war financing.
Over 500 Ukrainian drones attacked Russia overnight, killing three near Moscow. Romania found an unexploded projectile. The US let a sanctions waiver for Russian oil purchases lapse, impacting India.
The ECB may raise interest rates to combat inflation driven by the Iran war's oil supply shock, despite risks to the Eurozone economy, as even dovish policymakers lose confidence in a quick resolution.
The IEA warns of impending oil price spikes due to rapidly depleting global inventories and supply losses exceeding 12.8 million barrels per day since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began, with peak summer demand expected to worsen the situation.
The IEA noted that since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, global oil supplies have dropped by 12.8 mln bpd
The International Energy Agency forecasts a 1.78 million barrels per day oil supply deficit in 2026 due to the Iran war's impact on Middle East production, despite a projected demand decline from price spikes and economic slowdown.
Global oil prices reached a four-year high of over US$122 per barrel following reports of potential US military strikes on Iran, sparking fears of significant supply disruptions in the Middle East.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei warned that OPEC member countries will be unable to replenish oil supply deficits once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, citing production capacity reductions during the strait's closure and uncertainty over future stability.
The United Arab Emirates has announced its withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, marking one of the world's largest oil producers leaving the oil cartel amid the severest energy crisis in decades. The move could lead to increased oil supplies in the medium term as Abu Dhabi may scale up production without quota restrictions, while potentially deepening divisions among Middle East countries and undermining regional stability.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries or OPEC is a group of major oil-producing nations. This group coordinates their petroleum production policies to help effectively manage global oil supply and influence crude prices.
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Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial newsUnicredit also have a note out on the oil market this morning, in which they warn:The Iran war has triggered one of the largest disruptions to physical oil supply in modern history. While de‑escalation could ease some geopolitical risk premiums, the damage to production, exports and logistics means markets are unlikely to quickly return to pre‑war conditions.We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June (vs. mid-May prior) and a slower Gulf production recovery. The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.We assume that global oil demand falls on a year-over-year basis by 1.7mb/d in 2026Q2 and 0.1mb/d in 2026 given the jump in refined product prices. Because extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer.Adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just over $100 assuming Gulf exports only normalize by end-July.Severely adverse scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average at nearly $120 assuming Gulf exports normalize by end-July and 2.5mb/d of persistent reduction to Gulf capacity. This 2.5mb/d of scarring is equivalent to Hormuz flows not recovering above 70% (till pipeline capacity is expanded).Benign scenario: Brent 2026Q4 would average just under $80 assuming Gulf exports normalize by mid-June, no capacity reduction, and stronger US and core OPEC supply responses. Continue reading...
