In the middle of two wars, between two straits
Analysis of Trump's energy ceasefire move towards the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East
Quick Look
- Trump criticized Zelensky by declaring an energy ceasefire for the Russia-Ukraine war.
- In the Middle East, the Houthis' attacks on Saudi Arabia have brought the US-Iran tension and the course of the conflicts in Yemen to a critical point.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
When he took office, Trump claimed that he would end the Russia-Ukraine war in a short time. In the Middle East, conflicts between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia threaten energy security.
While explaining his reaction, Trump said that he had ended 8 wars and had the chance to end 2 more wars.
The first of the wars he mentioned was the Russia-Ukraine war, which he said he would end in a week when he took office. However, as we finish our second year, there does not seem to be any hope for peace. It seems that he could not even think of informing Zelensky about the Energy ceasefire he achieved with a last move.
"Effective immediately, an energy ceasefire has been declared in the war between Russia and Ukraine," Trump said on social media. He announced with the sentence: Reminding that the two countries have pledged not to attack each other's energy infrastructures even if the war continues, Trump said, "Both sides agreed. Do not break it." He did not forget to warn.
The US President again cited Zelensky as the reason for the continuation of the war. "I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president," he said. A journalist asked: "What would you advise suffering Ukrainians to do?" He answered the question: "I suggest that they find a new leader who can make agreements, because he could actually make many agreements, but for some reason he never makes them."
Trump has been distant from Zelensky from the beginning. In fact, the meeting in the Oval Office where he scolded Zelensky with his staff may have gone down in world political history as diplomatic discourtesy. Of course, Zelesnky was also asked about Trump's call for a new leader. The Ukrainian president responded with the statement, "Let's declare a 60-day ceasefire and hold elections." Zelensky, who had previously been criticized for not holding elections, answered under what conditions will we hold elections in the middle of the war? Moreover, 20 percent of the country is under occupation and a significant part of the population is abroad.
Of course, Russia has not yet agreed to a much shorter ceasefire, let alone 60 days. Russians think that the ceasefire will give Ukraine the opportunity to recover and gain power. Their response to the ceasefire call was new attacks. Russia, which targets Ukraine's energy and transportation infrastructure and wants to worsen the conditions for Ukraine for the upcoming winter, has recently made attacks especially on the destruction of electricity and gas infrastructure. It hit bridges, passenger buses and even the train line connecting the country to Europe.
While these are happening in the north, in the south, the attention in the US-Iran war is on Yemen and Bab al-Mandeb rather than the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The Houthis' attacks targeting Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia resulted in the deadliest consequences of both the Yemen war and the US-Iran war: 13 dead and more than 300 injured.
Some experts think the Houthis are responding to US sanctions against Iranian airlines. Iran expert Mehmet Koç wrote in his evaluation on However, the Houthis say that they did so in response to the air embargo on Sanaa airport and want this embargo to be lifted as the first condition. Saudi Arabia is not approaching the table for now.
He is calculating the steps he will take against the attacks of the Houthis. It is trying to strengthen air defense systems. Because Saudi Arabia has invested trillions of dollars not only in oil revenues but also in non-oil projects with its 2030 vision. Now this vision is also at risk. Of course, the Mecca defense alliance is also on the agenda, and the support of the parties to the agreement and the contribution of the USA will determine the course of the war.
It is both the war between the USA and Iran and the war between the Houthis and the Saudi Arabia-backed government forces. But first, the US-Iran war must end so that the support provided to the Houthis remains limited.
Here, Trump can determine the fate of both wars and both straits with the steps he takes.
Maybe then he can get an award.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How effective will the energy ceasefire be on the ground?
- What military measures will Saudi Arabia take against the Houthis?

