Irreversible threshold in the climate crisis: Although carbon emissions slow down, global temperature increase is moving towards the disaster limit

In the world of climate science, global environmental policies, meteorology and international diplomacy, a vital medical and environmental report that directly concerns the future of the planet has been presented to the public. The Emission Gap Report prepared by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) revealed the extent of the disaster before the COP31 Climate Summit to be held in Antalya in November.

In his statement at the presentation of the report, UN Secretary-General António Guterres emphasized that the 1.5 °C limit, which is considered the critical threshold in global warming, has now been exceeded and that extreme heat waves, forest fires and deadly floods are creating devastating effects all over the world.

CURRENT POLICIES INDICATE A 2.8 DEGREE DISASTER

According to the report data, although the rate of increase in greenhouse gas emissions shows signs of stopping for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, current state policies remain far from meeting climate targets. Scientists have determined that if current commitments are maintained, the global temperature increase will reach 2.6 °C to 2.8 °C compared to the pre-industrial period.

This table means that the 2.0 °C safety upper limit set in the 2015 Paris Agreement has been severely violated. Researchers warn that if global emissions exceed 3.4%, ecological and biological life on the planet will be plunged into irreversible disaster.

RENEWABLE ENERGY HAS DOUBLED, BUT THE EMISSIONS GAP IS NOT CLOSING

Positive developments in the report include the fact that clean energy capacity has grown three times faster than expected since 2015, and solar energy investments have grown eight times faster. It is estimated that 2025 emissions will remain at 2024 levels thanks to the decrease in land use and forest fires.

However, climate scientist Bill Hare, one of the experts at Climate Analytics, and CREA researcher Lauri Myllyvirta state that a single-year pause does not mean a permanent downward trend. While emissions must be reduced by 45% over the next decade to achieve Paris Agreement targets, current promises amount to only a 15% cut in the most optimistic scenario.

US WITHDRAWAL FROM THE AGREEMENT AND LOCKDOWN IN IPCC CAUSES CONCERN

One of the most striking parts of the report is global diplomatic crises. It was calculated that the formal withdrawal of the United States, the world's largest emitter after China, from the Paris Agreement under the Trump administration would alone impose an additional burden of 0.1 °C on global peak warming.

On the other hand, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which oversees scientific evaluations, is deadlocked due to differences of opinion between developed and developing countries on the publication schedule of the next report. More than a hundred scientists published an open letter, emphasizing that there is not a single second left to lose in the climate crisis and declaring that they will continue their work uninterrupted.