The gas comes back under pressure. On September 1, the price of European TTF exceeded 70 euros per megawatt hour for the first time since the first weeks of the conflict in Iran, while in Asia LNG exceeded 24 dollars per million Btu. In both markets, prices have thus reached the highest levels of the last five months and are now more than double compared to before the conflict.
Above all, the difficulties of supplies from the Persian Gulf are rekindling fears of a new energy crisis. But, according to an analysis by Coface, one of the world's largest operators in credit insurance and commercial risk management, a return to the peaks reached during the 2022 energy crisis remains, at least for now, an unlikely scenario.
The main factor of instability remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of global LNG trade transits. Qatar, responsible for around 90% of the volumes of liquefied gas normally moved through the Strait, continues to keep exports severely limited after the attacks suffered by two methane tankers in July and the damage which reduced the operations of the Ras Laffan hub.
The Qatari company has also extended the force majeure on deliveries to European and Asian customers for another month. Edison, one of QatarEnergy's main European buyers, has reported cancellations of supplies until the first days of November.
The difficulties on the supply side come at a particularly delicate phase for demand. Western Europe recorded the warmest June-July ever recorded, with temperatures remaining very high even in August. Prolonged heat waves simultaneously affected Japan, South Korea and other areas of Asia.
The increased use of cooling systems has pushed up electricity demand and therefore gas consumption. Furthermore, in Europe, lower nuclear and hydroelectric production has increased the use of methane-fueled power plants.
Making the market even more vulnerable are European stocks, which at the end of August were only 65% full, compared to an average of around 82% recorded in the same period over the last ten years.
Europe and Asia thus find themselves competing for a more limited number of available loads, especially those coming from the United States, which have become the main source of additional supply on the world market.
A dependence destined to increase further if Qatari exports remain limited. In the first half of 2026, US LNG represented approximately 60% of European liquefied gas imports and over a quarter of the continent's overall gas imports.
However, the greater concentration of supplies exposes the market to other risk factors: from technical interruptions to hurricanes, up to possible political decisions. Added to this are the delays in the entry into operation of some new North American projects.
However, the decisive variable in the coming months will be winter. The development of El Niño reduces the likelihood of a particularly harsh season, but lower temperatures and lower wind generation in Europe and Asia could rapidly increase demand for gas for heating and electricity generation, putting further pressure on already lower-than-normal supplies.
For Coface, the continuation of the instability in the Strait of Hormuz therefore makes it increasingly likely that gas prices will remain much higher than pre-conflict levels in 2026-2027.
However, a new shock comparable to that of 2022 would require the concomitance of several particularly unfavorable factors and therefore remains an extreme scenario. The problem is that the market's margin of safety has narrowed considerably.
