Illa continues to decline, the tripartite does not add up and Aliança would already compete for second place in Catalonia

Salvador Illa would win the elections in Catalonia again, but with significantly worse results than those achieved in 2024. According to the latest barometer of the Center for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat (CEO), the socialist would obtain between 33 and 35 deputies in any possible elections to the Parliament, that is, up to nine less than the 42 achieved just two years ago.

Behind the PSC, there would be two practically tied forces: ERC, which would improve its results by going from 20 to between 24 and 26 parliamentarians, and Aliança Catalana, which would continue its growth and achieve between 23 and 25 seats, compared to the two it currently has.

The formation chaired by Sílvia Orriols would far surpass Junts, the fourth force, which would lose up to 17 deputies, according to the CEO, going down from the current 35 to between 18 and 20, which the Generalitat's population center predicts.

PP and Vox would tie. Both could get between 12 and 13 deputies, but the result would be better for those of Ignacio Garriga, since they started with 11 parliamentarians. The popular ones, however, would lose between two and three, since today they have 15 seats.

At the bottom of the classification would remain the Commons and the CUP, which would maintain their limited representation. The formation twinned with Sumar would obtain between five and six deputies and the anti-system between four and five.

Ungovernable Catalonia

With these figures in hand, Catalonia would be ungovernable, since the tripartite that anointed Illa in 2024 would not add up. PSC, ERC and the Commons would concentrate 67 deputies in the most favorable of the assumptions for their interests and the absolute majority is 68. A pro-independence alternative would not be possible either. The four secessionist forces of the Parliament surpass that threshold of absolute majority, by amassing together up to 76 deputies, but ERC and the CUP refuse to ally with Aliança Catalana and, without its 25 deputies, the independence coalition would fall to 51 parliamentarians, very far from the 68 necessary.