IMF projects average oil price at $95.74 per barrel in 2026 and $87.39 in 2027

BANGKOK, October 13. /TASS/. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the average price of a barrel of oil will be $95.74 this year and $87.39 in 2027. This forecast is included in the organization's latest World Economic Outlook report, released in Bangkok, where the governing bodies of the IMF and the World Bank are holding their off-site meetings.

"The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $67.74 in 2025; the assumed price, based on futures markets, is $95.74 in 2026 and $87.39 in 2027," the report says.

According to the authors, oil prices are projected to rise by 41.6% this year and fall by 8.7% next year. These figures represent upward revisions of 9.5 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, compared to the Fund's previous World Economic Outlook report released in July.

Fund experts emphasize that the forecast factors in an expected recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels between March and October 2027. However, they note that if the war between the US and Iran is not resolved by June 2027, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be effectively paralyzed and damage to oil infrastructure would escalate. Consequently, a resumption of oil supplies should not be expected before the end of 2027. In such a scenario, the experts forecast that oil prices could climb to $130 per barrel between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2027, returning to baseline scenario levels only by the fourth quarter of next year.

Natural gas prices are estimated by Fund experts to rise by 48% this year compared to 2025 levels. Fertilizer prices are projected to increase by an average of 10% in 2026 compared to the previous year.