In Brazil, for the first time a poll predicts Lula's victory

For the first time since the first electoral round, a poll predicts the victory of the president of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in next Sunday's run-off.

According to the Vox Brasil organization, Lula has 51% of the valid votes and his rival Flávio Bolsonaro 49%. Furthermore, according to 46.9% of those interviewed, the president will win the elections, compared to 41.6% who expect the senator to win. Vox Brasil is a small reporting company, but it has become very popular for being the only one to have predicted Bolsonaro's victory in the first round.

In the simulated scenario, which considers all interviewees, Lula has 46.4% of voting intentions, compared to 44.6% for the senator. Blank, invalid ballots and abstention votes amount to 5%, while 3.9% are undecided. The difference of 1.8 percentage points is within the margin of error of 2.15 points.