For several months, a number of organizations and experts have warned of a new war in the Tigray province in northern Ethiopia, where the worst possible course of events would occur if neighboring Eritrea were drawn into the conflict.
The first fear has already come true: the civil war in Tigray has broken out again. As with the previous conflict in Tigray in November 2020, it is unclear who fired the first shot. Skirmishes had been taking place for weeks when the Tigray-based TPLF rebels, who are defending their self-determination, suddenly stormed three airports in the province in mid-September. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has responded with widespread drone strikes in several parts of Tigray.
And now the probability is growing strongly that the second fear will become a reality: that Eritrea will be drawn into this war in Ethiopia - and perhaps Egypt as well. During the night of Thursday, Ethiopia's capital Addis Ababa was rocked by explosions. According to the BBC, some of these must have taken place near the army headquarters in the Torhayloch district.
Whether there is any connection is unclear, but Ethiopia chose on Thursday to expel ten Eritrean diplomats and close its embassy in Asmara. In a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Eritrea was accused of "direct and indirect hostile and belligerent acts".
Eritrea responded later in the day with corresponding measures. The two countries have thus completely severed diplomatic ties, seven years after Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for creating peace between the neighbors.
During the last war in Tigray, Eritrean units fought on Abiy's side against the TPLF. But the relationship between Asmara and Addis has completely deteriorated, largely because of Abiy's increasingly hard line on Ethiopia's need for a port on the Red Sea. There have been reports that Eritrean troops are already inside Tigray. Now the probability is growing that Eritrea really joins the TPLF against Abiy.
Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a bitter war in the years 1998–2000 and this was then followed by many years of cold war. This conflict lacked a clear winner and even now the balance of power between the parties is difficult to assess in a possible full-scale confrontation. Ethiopia has modernized its army and has access to Turkish drones that were instrumental in the recent war in Tigray.
But Eritrea's presence was just as crucial for Abiy in Tigray. And Eritrea and TPLF, now on the same side, may also be supported by Egypt. For almost a century, Egypt and Ethiopia have been arch-enemies over the sensitive issue of Nile water. In the region, the enemy of the enemy can mean a stronger bond than genuine friendship and that is why Egypt is on the same side as Eritrea.
In Cairo on Thursday, it attracted considerably more attention that Abiy also declared an Egyptian diplomat persona non grata, which Egypt responded with the same measure. The two countries are already fighting a proxy war in Sudan, with Egypt backing the regular army while Ethiopia has offered logistical support to the RSF rebels.
It is thus a very complex situation with a number of different states and rebel movements involved. With all the other crises in the region and elsewhere in the world, no one can count on extensive diplomatic pressure from the outside.
In the middle of the storm stands the African Union, based in Addis, and in a statement appeals for restraint:
"The AU Commission stands ready to support efforts towards de-escalation, dialogue and peaceful conflict resolution".
Unfortunately, it seems like a pious hope at the moment.
