The budget law still needs to be written, but it will need every possible economic help. "Whoever can contribute will contribute", said the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, in the Chamber, in an appeal to banks, insurance companies and energy companies. "The composition of the maneuver will be defined in light of the completion of the European procedure" on the safeguard clause for energy and defense spending, the minister said at a hearing before the budget commissions.
"We will try to arrive in Parliament with the maneuver by October 20, but this affects us and it could go further" he said then speaking to journalists. According to the European response, however, the government has "a plan B, a plan C and a plan D". During the hearing, some of the lines of action emerged, also linked to the ongoing negotiations to take into account the increase in inflation in the spending rules. "We would like there to be the possibility of using the current Nec on energy and defense also to meet the needs of families who have had this type of energy shock". "If in Europe they say, no, there's no problem, families should put up with it; in my opinion it's a wrong choice," he said. A fixed point of the next maneuver is, however, hyper-depreciation, in practice aid to companies for specific types of investments, which will "certainly not only be extended but further strengthened". Another intervention that will be refinanced is the 5% flat tax on salary increases for contract renewals, which "has been very successful" and is a response to what the minister defines as a "salary emergency".
An emergency which in recent months has worsened, according to what Istat reported at the hearing, between the energy crisis and inflation and which must be monitored. On average in 2026, the growth in contractual wages based on the renewals signed so far is 2.5%, anticipates President Francesco Maria Chelli, while based on provisional data for the month of September, acquired inflation (HIPC) is 3%. A heavy setback given that real wages, in the second quarter, were still 9.4% lower than in the first quarter of 2021. From the hearings of the Court of Auditors, CNEL, Bank of Italy and Parliamentary Budget Office, the full complexity of the situation and the difficulty of a maneuver emerged, which according to the president of the PUB, Lilia Cavallari, "has no other margins other than the national safeguard clause for defense and energy expenditure", 14.4 billion per year for 2027 and 2028. The Italian economy has nevertheless shown "a higher resilience than expected", summarized the head of the economics and statistics department of the Bank of Italy Andrea Brandolini, but it is exposed to "significant sources of risk" and the high debt is "a factor of vulnerability". Fortunately, the country can "leverage the prudence of recent years and the framework of European budget rules".
Even so, the strong growth in interest on the debt (over 20 billion in the three-year period), estimates the Court of Auditors, will bring the impact on GDP to 4.6% in 2028-2029, a value 0.2 percentage points higher than the April estimates. The PBO validated the macroeconomic framework and invited us to pay attention to the deficit: even small deviations in the final part of the year could compromise the exit from the excessive deficit procedure. On the eve of the council of ministers which will outline the financial framework of the maneuver with the budget plan, the majority parties discuss priorities and strategies. Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini brought together their respective parliamentarians to take stock. Tomorrow a majority summit will try to find a solution. Forza Italia is calling for a no-tax area for young people, the extension of the exemption from road tax for all first cars, support for medical expenses already in the current year (and not the next) and the Irpef reduction of 33 percent up to 60 thousand euros. The League is focusing on early pensions, the extension of the SEZs, special economic zones, the abolition of the RAI license fee and the contribution of the banks. According to Salvini "it will certainly be there", without quick interventions and can bring 5 billion, without the bankers "crying".
